Friday October 8, 2004 - 11:08:44 GMT
Share This Story
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com
FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 10-08-04
Feeling Rich Yet?
“If the Economy is Recovering... Why don't we feel any richer?” asks the front page of economy.com. In the contest of NFP hoopla that indeed seems to be the deeper question. The handicapping of the number is all over the place as leading economic data offers few clear clues. Initial jobless claims - yesterdays report notwithstanding - point to lower NFP. So does the Challenger report which recorded the largest gain in corporate layoffs in 8 months. The Monster online index however has reached record highs – although we tend to be more dismissive of the number as it its more of an indication of businesses “inventorying” resumes rather actual proof of hiring.
Certainly the market seems to be “frontrunning” a weak NFP as euro trades 50 points higher from its Tokyo close. Having lived through several wrong way moves this year we can’t help but wonder if the dealers are simply running stops in anticipation of reversal. In truth however, NFP has been very difficult number to predict all year long and this month the data seems even more perplexing. Nevertheless, one fact remains clear. According to Cleveland Fed Study by economists Mark Scweitzer and Guhan Venkatu employment is down 1.5% in this recovery versus an average 3.3% gain in the first three years of the nine previous business cycles. This reality will weigh heavily on the dollar long after the fireworks of NFP are gone. Thus, regardless of which way the EUR/USD travels after the release we feel the move will not extend. Given the tepid global eco environment, a breakout is not in the cards. Range trading still rules.
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades all the way to 2350 as traders eye 2400 option barriers
- JPY gains 100 points to 110.30 on speculation that China may loosen CNY controls
- GBP follows euro strength to 7830
- CHF more restrained than euro as unemployment stays near record levels
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Unemployment Rate (SEP) Expected at 7.20%, Previous 7.20%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Net Change in Employment (SEP) Expected at 15.0K, Previous –7.0K
12:15GMT – (8:15 AM EST) CAD Housing Starts (SEP) Expected at 230K, Previous 241.5K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Unemployment Rate Expected at 5.4%, Previous 5.4%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Expected at 0.3%, Previous 0.3%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Expected at , Previous
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (SEP) Expected at 150K, Previous 144K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Change in Manufact. Payrolls (SEP) Expected at 10K, Previous 22K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Average Weekly Hours (SEP) Expected at 33.8, Previous 33.8
14:00GMT – (10:00 PM EST) USD Wholesale Inventories (AUG) Expected at 0.8%, Previous 1.3%
13:30GMT – (9:30 AM EST) US Bernanke speaks on panel at St. Louis Conference
16:00GMT – (12:00 PM EST) US Treasury's Taylor - Atlanta Fed Payments Conf.
17:00GMT – (1:00 PM EST) US Fed's Ferguson speaks at St. Louis Conference
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."