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Monday January 7, 2008 - 22:16:57 GMT
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Forex Market News - Canadian dollar slips on oil, subprime rumors

Mon Jan 7, 2008 5:10pm EST

 By John McCrank
 TORONTO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar ended
Monday's North American session at a 2-1/2 week low against the
U.S. dollar as falling oil prices and some unsubstantiated
rumors of a big writedowns at a Canadian bank combined to sour
sentiment towards the currency.
 Canadian bond prices ended higher in response to steep
losses on the Toronto Stock Exchange, which prompted investors
to seek the safety of government debt.
 The Canadian dollar closed at C$1.0056 to the U.S. dollar,
or 99.44 U.S. cents, down from C$1.0013 to the U.S. dollar, or
99.87 U.S. cents, at Friday's close.
 Canada is a major producer and exporter of oil and a 2.9
percent slide in U.S. crude oil prices CLc1 was a factor in
the Canadian currency's decline, said David Bradley, director
of foreign exchange at Scotia Capital.
 NYMEX crude, which reached a record high of $100.09 a
barrel last Thursday, closed at $95.09 a barrel on Monday due
to persistent global economic fears and a forecast for warm
weather in the United States, which would curb heating demand.
 The currency and Canadian stocks were also hammered by a
rumor that one of the big Canadian banks was set to announce an
$11-billion writedown related to the U.S. subprime mortgage
 The rumor prompted Toronto-Dominion Bank, the only one of
Canada's big six banks with no subprime-related writedowns, to
repeat that has no subprime exposure.
 On the central bank front, Bank of Canada Governor David
Dodge said a Canadian dollar in the low to mid 90 U.S. cent
range would be "totally justified in terms of the historical
relationships between the terms of trade, domestic performance,
and so on," news agency Market News reported.
 Dodge was speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of the
Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
 The Canadian dollar rose to a modern-day high of US$1.1039
on Nov. 7 on the back of robust commodity prices, a strong
economy, and a weakening greenback, prompting government and
central bank officials to voice concerns about possible
negative effects on the economy. The currency then fell back to
around parity with the U.S. dollar, where it has hovered
 Dodge also warned that a slowdown of the U.S. economy in
the first half of 2008 could have a bigger impact on the
Canadian economy than was expected a just few months ago. See
 Canadian bond prices rose on safe-haven appeal as Toronto
stocks chalked up losses.
 "The stock markets are the ones driving this and in as much
as I thought stock markets were a little bit too optimistic in
December, they have now jumped to the other side and they are
now overly pessimistic," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at
Laurentian Bank of Canada
 "I guess the markets are expecting some really bad economic
news and some aggressive interest rate cuts by both the Fed and
the Bank of Canada."
 Recent data have suggested that the U.S. Federal Reserve
could cut interest rates by as much as half a percentage point
at its Jan. 29-30 meeting, while the Bank of Canada is expected
to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month.
 The two-year bond rose 4 Canadian cents to C$101.29 to
yield 3.536 percent. The 10-year bond added 21 Canadian cents
to C$101.02 to yield 3.869 percent.
 The yield spread between the two-year and 10-year bond was
33.3 basis points, down from 33.6 at the previous close.
 The 30-year bond climbed 35 Canadian cents to C$116.27 to
yield 4.048 percent. In the United States, the 30-year treasury
yielded 4.339 percent.
 The three-month when-issued T-bill yielded 3.77 percent,
down from 3.78 percent at the previous close.
(Editing by Peter Galloway)

© Reuters 2007. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.


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