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Friday October 8, 2004 - 15:02:44 GMT

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Daily Forex Market Commentary Friday, October 08, 2004 by GFT

Daily Forex Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

The dollar slipped on Thursday on position squaring ahead of the all-important US unemployment report. The market has priced in an average consensus of an increase of 145,000 in non-farm payrolls, but forecasts vary wildly in the wake of the hurricanes impact on Florida and of the expected revisions for the entire last year. This is the last unemployment report ahead of the presidential elections less than four weeks from now, and every nuance will be scrutinized as the contenders have failed so far to take the lead in polls. Expect a violent reaction following the release of the report.


The euro/dollar has traded in a yo-yo pattern of one-day down and one day-up for the past four days, and if this silly pattern continues, then Friday should see a decline. Thursday’s market was locked in an inside range, little surprise given the high stakes on Friday.

It will take a break below Thursday’s low of 1.2245 to send the euro/dollar reeling lower to 1.2210. Further support comes at 1.2165 and a slide below this support level would encourage a test at 1.2115.

Ond3 again, any recovery would face resistance between 1.2325 and 1.2330, but only a break above the resistance at 1.2360 would accelerate a recovery and place the euro/dollar back into a rising channel. The pair would then challenge the 1.2410 level. The euro/dollar should not reach the pivotal highs at 1.2442 and 1.2460 at this point.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with potential for a high volatility break out
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen failed to surpass the resistance at the 111.40 level on Thursday, but its decline below the Fibonacci retracement level at 111.00 was brief and unexciting, as it was unable to trigger sell stops.

If successful in breaking above 111.40 in a more convincing way on Friday, dollar/yen will challenge the pivotal resistance at 111.70. Key resistance remains slightly lower at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

The pair must break below 110.90 to signal a decline of the support at 110.55. A break below this level would challenge 110.25. There is some support at 109.95 and strong pivotal support at 109.80. Distant remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with potential for a high volatility break out
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Just like it led the major European currencies lower on Wednesday, sterling/dollar then spearheaded the upmove on Thursday on short covering ahead of the US jobless data.
It the recovery continues, then look for a test of the resistance at 1.7886. Further up, the pair would once again face a barrier at 1.7925. A break above this level would signal a test of the next resistance at 1.7975. Above 1.8030, good resistance levels remain at 1.8080 and then at 1.8160.

If it falls prey to the economic report and resumes its decline, sterling/dollar would drop below 1.7780 before testing the good support between 1.7745 and 1.7738. If this area gives way, then look for a sharp decline below 1.7706 and toward 1.7600, but this weakness should not be seen today.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with potential for a high volatility break out
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss trimmed early losses but still closed lower on Thursday. The pair didn’t break any new ground as it remained confined to an inside range.

If it can resume its upmove, then the dollar/Swiss franc should break above 1.2680 and take a stab at 1.2712. Further strength would ten warrant a test of the pivotal high at 1.2772.

The pair still needs to break below 1.2600 to signal that the medium-term weakness has resumed. The pair would then fall further to challenge the support at 1.2525. Only a break below this level would signal a test of the pivotal low of 1.2443.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with potential for a high volatility break out
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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