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Tuesday January 8, 2008 - 18:22:31 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (8 January 2008)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4740 level and was supported around the $1.4680 level.  The common currency continues to orbit the $1.4715 level, representing the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.4965 to $1.4310.  The common currency moved to intraday highs after the release of U.S. November pending home sales data that came in worse-than-expected at -2.6% m/m and -19.2% y/y.  There is increasing chatter that the Federal Open Market Committee may enact an intermeeting rate cut between now and the FOMC’s interest rate decision on 30 January, though most traders expect the Fed will wait to reduce the fed funds repo rate by 25bps or 50bp until later in the month.  Philadelphia Fed President Plosser today said “further adjustments to policy” may be required.”  He hawkishly maintained, however, that “slow growth and falling inflation do not necessarily go hand-in-hand” and added the “worrisome signs of underlying price pressures” are “more broad-based.” Atlanta Fed President Lockhart yesterday said he is concerned about inflation but “equally or more concerned” about the slowdown in economic growth.  Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks later today and Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Thursday.  In eurozone news, German November manufacturing orders rose 3.4% m/m and 13.6% y/y, exceeding expectations.  Also, EMU-13 November retail sales fell 0.5% m/m and 1.4% y/y, the largest annual drop since 1997.  ECB member Kranjec yesterday said the central bank’s rhetoric regarding inflation and possible rate increases is not “empty talk.” Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4465 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥109.80 level and was supported around the ¥109.00 figure.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 76.4% retracement of the move from ¥107.20 to ¥114.65.  Bank of Japan Governor Fukui talked about the need for central banks to cooperate on account of globalization and economic shocks.  Most traders expect Fukui and the BoJ Policy Board will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% over the coming months.  The yen’s broad-based sell-off today suggests there is still some risk appetite in the markets related to the short yen carry trade.   The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.19% to close at ¥14,528.67.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥107.85/ 20 levels.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥161.50 level and was supported around the ¥160.10 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥217.30 and ¥98.40 levels, respectively.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.2643 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.2690 – the pair’s lowest close since the yuan revaluation of July, 2005.



The British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9825 level and was supported around the $1.9665 level.  The pair gained ground after the release of a stronger-than-expected Halifax December house price survey that saw U.K. house prices rise 1.3% m/m, exceeding expectations.  Traders reacted by reducing their expectations that Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will ease interest rates on Thursday, and this in turn led to a stronger pound.  These data were offset, however, by a weak BRC retail sales monitor that confirmed U.K. retailers had their worst Christmas period for three years.  Like-for-like retail sales were up 0.3% y/y, down from November’s 1.2% y/y gains.  Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling said he will decide over the next few weeks if the term of Bank of England Governor King will be extended. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9590 level.  The euro came off marginally vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7420 level and was capped around the ₤0.7465 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1120 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1190 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.1895 to CHF 1.0885.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1350 level.  The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6450 and CHF 2..3135 levels, respectively.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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