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Wednesday January 9, 2008 - 20:31:12 GMT
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FX Blog BOE Policy Preview
GVI Bank of England Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: January 10 at 12:00 GMT.
- BOE Repo Rate: 5.50%
- Expected Decision: Risk of another -25bp rate cut.
- Growing concerns that the U.K. economy could be negatively impacted by the fall-out from the global credit crisis prompted the December rate cut. Note below that both the U.K. Manufacturng and Services PMIs have turned south. Inflation data are mixed, but don't appear to be a major issue any longer. Note below that the short-term credit markets are expecting a -25 bp cut in 1Q08 and more rate reductions subsequently.
BANK OF ENGLAND Policy Objective: The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability, low inflation, and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government's inflation target of 2%.
The chart above shows year/year CPI for the U.K. relative to its 2% target for this key price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Repo Rate and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.K. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.K. repo rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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