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Wednesday January 9, 2008 - 20:35:20 GMT
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FX Blog ECB Policy Meeting Preview
GVI European Central Bank Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: January 10 at 12:45 GMT.
- ECB Refi rate: 4.00%
- Expected Decision: No Change
- ECB President Trichet signaled no policy changes after its most recent meetng. Some felt also that the central bank, while talking tough about inflation, is now taking a more neutral posture on policy. Key Eurozone PMI figures, which correlate well with GDP, are pointing to a developing economic slowdown. The high level of the EUR/USD is another restraint on the economy and overseas price pressures.
ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB "refi" rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
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