Thursday January 10, 2008 - 03:40:48 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD
||I cautiously favor the upside but we need a break of 0.8858 to confirm strength to 0.8912 at least|
||The correction lower seemed to be truncated yesterday and we have seen a 5 point break of the old high. Hourly momentum is a little weak but 4-hour seems a bit stronger. Thus Iâ€™ll cautiously favor continued gains but weâ€™ll need to see the 0.8820 area to hold to see this occur directly. Breach of 0.8820 would imply a retest at 0.8770 before higher. A break then above 0.8853-58 should maintain the upward direction for 0.8873 and probably 0.8912. Take care as there could be a pullback. Next resistance = 0.8983.|
||Higher support held and we have seen the move back to the 0.8853 high. It should move further and while 0.8645-67 continues to hold the next target should be 0.8983 minimum & possibly as high as 0.9075-98. (9th January)|
||A break of 0.8853 was seen but was hardly successful. On the whole I remain bullish but we should be aware of the risk of a further correction lower. First support is at 0.8820 and if this breaks then we could see a dip down to 0.8770. I think this will hold if seen. Only breach would extend the decline down to 0.8700 and possibly 0.8654-82. |
||The upside still looks more likely and therefore only a break below 0.8645 would undermine the bullish structure and cause a retest of the 0.8552 low. (9th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It is possible that we have seen Wave â€“b- end at 0.8682- if so a move above the 0.8853 high would provide a wave equality target at 0.8977-83 being a 50% retracement in Wave B.
Until then we should keep in mind the 61.8% retracement in Wave â€“b- at 0.8667.
The 0.8682 low does indeed look like Wave â€“b- with the only possible risk of a flat correction that would force a second decline to the 0.8667-82 area. More likely we are seeing a move higher in Wave â€“c- that sees wave equality at 0.8983 (which is a 50% retracement in Wave B) and at most the 0.9075-98 area being a 61.8% retracement in Wave B and a 138.2% projection in Wave â€“c-.
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