Friday January 11, 2008 - 04:17:01 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||While 1.9636-66 caps I remain bearish for losses to 1.9479 before a correction|
||The 1.9542-52 area basically held with just a few points slippage and this caused a move back to the 1.9657-89 area advised. This should be the most we see and thus only a break above 1.9633-36 and then yesterdayâ€™s 1.9666 high would turn the picture more bullish and trigger gains through 1.9695-00 and probably all the way to 1.9772 at least â€“ possibly 1.9820. However, in this area take care as Iâ€™d expect a move back lower then. |
||The downside is progressing well but we should see a decent correction from around the 1.9406-12 area. Note the daily bullish divergence. The correction should find it tough to break above 2.00-2.01. (11th January)|
||With the 1.9657-89 area holding the correction from the 1.9542-52 area I suspect we should now see the final decline to 1.9479. Initially we may well see continued sideways consolidation between 1.9558 -1.9636 but once this breaks lower we should see losses to the 1.9479 intermediate target which should then cause a further correction. Only below 1.9470 would suggest a direct attack on the 1.9406-10 area before the larger correction. |
||The downside should continue to develop to 1.9479 and after a correction to the 1.9406 area which should generate a more sizeable correction. Further out we should see a move towards 1.87 approx. (10th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Yesterdayâ€™s move lower has helped and I feel we are towards the closing stages of the Wave (iii) decline that looks as if it should reach the 176.4% projection at 1.9406.
Within this we are close to completing Wave â€“iii- of Wave (b). Wave â€“iii- has a 161.8% projection at 1.9479 and this is also a 66.7% projection in minor Wave v of Wave c.
I feel that the decline to 1.9552 was Wave a of Wave v and thus while Wave b remains below the 50%-61.8% retracement between 1.9657-89 we should see Wave c move to the 1.9479 target.
This should then cause a correction in Wave â€“iv- ahead of the final decline to 1.9406.
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