Monday January 14, 2008 - 04:57:11 GMT
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Daily Analysis USDCHF
||While 1.0975 holds the upside can re-develop else loss signals a move to the 1.0883 low|
||We saw losses as expected and these stalled perfectly at 1.0975. Now, this really does need to hold to retain a possible bullish move. To raise the chance we shall need a move above 1.1005 and then 1.1055. If seen then we should see a move through to 1.1107. Take care as this could cause a correction. Next major resistance is at 1.1170-90. |
||Loss of 1.1018 breaks down the triangle scenario but should 1.0975 hold there is still potential for gains. We shall need a break above 1.1172 & then 1.1225 to provide a stronger thrust for 1.1299-1.1346. (11th January)|
||The 1.0975 target held perfectly. There is also a small projection at 1.0939. Only below 1.0939 extends to the 1.0862-83 area which I feel would hold. Next major support is at 1.0806 and 1.0749.|
||I am beginning to consider the possibility of a stronger decline over the next 2-3 months at least. I donâ€™t think this will occur directly - only below the 1.0836-83 would bring this eventuality closer. (4th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Failure to see any further gains have forced a minor new low and I suspect we merely saw a minor Wave iv at 1.1190 and should then see losses in Wave v to 1.0975 at least which is where Wave â€“c- will equal Wave â€“a- and where the minor Wave v will have projected by 66.7%. A 76.4% projection in Wave v lies at 1.0939.
While this last move lower is possible the 50%-58.6% retracement in internal Wave c of Wave v must remain below 1.1068-79.
Should we see this 1.0939-75 area support amid a bullish divergence we should expect a return to the prior Wave â€“b- at 1.1346.
So far so good â€“ only below 1.0939-75 signals stronger losses to 1.0883 and below.
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