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Monday October 11, 2004 - 07:21:27 GMT
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Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

USD/JPY collapses through important support. Follow up needed toward 107.50 in coming week to confirm return of downtrend.

USD looking weak across the board.




October 11, 2004

Economic Data Today (all times GMT):

06:00 Germany Wholesale Price Index (Sep)
08:00 Norway CPI, PPI (Sep)
08:30 UK PPI Input/Output (Sep) & Trade Balance (Aug)
08:30 UK ODPM House Prices
12:00 US Secretary of Treasury Snow to Speak in Ohio
US FIXED INCOME and some other markets closed for Banking Holiday (but stock markets and agricultural commodities/metals open for trading)

Selected Data This Week:

Tue: Sweden CPI, UK CPI/RPI, ZEW Survey
Wed: Japan Current Account, UK Unemployment
Thu: Japan CGPI, Japan BOJ Report, Japan Consumer Confidence, Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision, Sweden Unemployment, US Trade Balance
Fri: Norway Trade Balance, US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Empire Manufacturing, US Industrial Production, US Michigan Confidence

Market Commentary

The payrolls number on Friday did in fact release a torrent of activity as we strongly suspected it would on Friday. A reading of only 96K jobs added to the economy vs. the 148K expected was a disappointment. Grabbing the headlines was the monster move in USD/JPY, which fell over a figure and a half in less than 24 hours. Traders in JPY were caught on the wrong foot after thinking that the Chinese revaluation danger was somehow reduced in the wake of an inconclusive recent G7 meeting.

This week will hopefully be the "follow-through" week in which the USD weakens further - especially against the JPY and the European majors so we avoid another disappointing return to the range in what has been one of the two worst range trading episodes in currency markets in 30 years of trading. Major event risks this week include the Weekly Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday, US Trade Balance Balance on Thursday not to mention the barrage of data on Friday. Japanese data on Wednesday and Thursday is especially important for USD/JPY as well. A confirmation of the sell-off in USD/JPY is needed by late this week to confirm that the JPY is back on track.

Today specifically may be somewhat slow, as today is a banking holiday in the US and treasury futures trading is closed (though stock markets are open...). Japan was also closed for a holiday.

Technical Comments

EUR/USD: rose smartly back to recent highs and appears primed for an eminent break-through higher. 1.2360/80 is a standard "buy the dip" retracement area, while a return below 1.2300 would return the market to a ranging bias. A break higher through 1.2460 and on toward 1.2600 is the preferred scenario.

GBP/USD: GBP has been underperforming lately vs. its European counterparts - but this may change if the inflation data out this week (and starting today) in the UK proves as expected or higher. Support in GBP/USD comes in around 1.7900/10 and resistance at 1.7960. A break of the latter level could take the pair to the 1.8050 swing level, which could re-establish a bull-market in GBP/USD.

USD/JPY: the huge move on Friday and impressive break of 109.80 is a climactic move that clearly re-establishes a bearish market as long as USD/JPY stays below the 110.50 area. Strong resistance appears around 109.80/110.00. A strategy of selling the rallies with a target of 107.50 or below is preferred. 107.00 is a key level as it is the only major support above the 103.50 low.

EUR/JPY: Is nearing key support in the 135.00 area. If this level holds, the pair may go back for a retest of recent highs - though the outlook is in general uncertain in a strong JPY regime.

AUD/USD: Some measure of AUD's strength recently may have been due to the prospects for the re-election of PM Howard - now that he has been re-elected, AUD outperformance may be over with. Nonetheless. AUD/USD appears primed for a move higher toward 0.7500 in the coming weeks. 0.7300 is support.

USD/CAD: is oversold, but there may be one last spike downward toward 1.2450 before a large consolidation sets in. This pair may be a bit sensitive to developments in oil markets due to the heavy energy trade between the US and Canada - with a sell-off in energy possibly causing a rapid rise in USD/CAD. Strong resistance comes in at 1.2590.


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Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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