User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday January 14, 2008 - 23:06:13 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Will the US Dollar Fall to a New Record Low?


Monday, 14 January 2008 21:34:50 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Currency Strategist

• What Happens to the Euro After 1.50?
• British Pound: Arguments For and Against Further Weakness

Will the US Dollar Fall to a New Record Low?
Tomorrow’s US retail sales report will the catalyst that determines whether where the dollar falls to a new record low. Over the past few weeks, the market has gone from pricing in just one 25bp rate cut to as much as 75bp of easing at the end of this month. The Federal Reserve has grown increasingly bearish, all on the fear that the trouble in the US housing and labor markets have spilled onto consumer spending. Chain-store sales last month were weak and Target’s earnings disappointed Wall Street, but at the same time December retail sales which includes spending during the holidays should have been fairly decent last year. Also, the forecast for 0.1 percent growth is very low, meaning that it will not take much to beat the market’s pessimistic projections. If the number is stronger than forecasted, there could be a fairly material bounce in the US dollar because sentiment is so skewed to the downside. If consumer spending actually falls in the month of December, then not only is a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve guaranteed, but so would a rally up to 1.50 in the EUR/USD. In addition to retail sales, we are also expecting producer prices. We do not think that inflation will rise significantly because Bernanke downplayed the threat of inflation in his speech on Thursday and import prices were flat last month. The Federal Reserve is on track to continue lowering interest rates; the question is by how much. Therefore even if we do not see the EUR/USD hit 1.50 tomorrow, it should be just a matter of time before the dollar falls to a new record low. As more fourth quarter earnings are released, we expect the weak dollar to help boost profits for more US companies. This morning IBM announced that its revenue grew 10 percent from a year ago with 6 points of that growth coming from the weaker dollar.

What Happens to the Euro After 1.50?

In the US dollar portion of the Daily Fundamentals, we talked about whether or not the EUR/USD will hit 1.50, but what should we expect after that psychologically important price point is breached? An immediate reversal? Intervention from the European Central Bank? Although we believe that the ECB is closely eyeing the 1.50 price level, we do not expect the central bank to shower the markets with verbal intervention as soon as it is hit. This morning, France’s European Affairs Minister Jouyet complained that they “cannot live with a euro at this level with three other currencies which are weak.” Instead of placating their worries, ECB officials shot back with hawkish comments that threaten action if inflationary pressures continue to grow. The strong Euro helps to bring down inflationary pressures which is why we believe that the central bank’s uncle point for the Euro is moving higher. An initial break of 1.50 will not worry the ECB unless the currency remains there. However if starts moving to 1.51, 1.52 or 1.53 and refuses to fall, then we expect the ECB to start moaning and groaning because recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone economy is strained. Although the ECB still has the luxury of maintaining a tight monetary policy, if growth slows further, they may have to shift focus. Even though industrial production was stronger than expected in the month of November, it dropped by 0.5 percent from the prior month. Meanwhile comments from SNB President Roth this morning seem to have no impact on the Swiss Franc which is stronger across the board. Roth warned that the Swiss economy faces the double risk of inflation and growth, making it difficult to determine monetary policy.

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

British Pound: Arguments For and Against Further Weakness
Foreign exchange traders are obsessed with selling the British pound and it seems like there is nothing that can stop the currency’s slide.  Producer prices were mostly stronger than expected, which should have helped the pound recover some of its losses, but further slowing in the growth of house prices prevented the currency from rallying.  Instead, the British pound gave back all of its gains against the US dollar and fell to a new low against the Euro, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.  Earnings season is upon us and according to a study from Ernst & Young LLP, UK companies issued the most profit warnings in six years.  Fundamentals continue to point to further losses in the British pound but there are reasons why the currency may bounce.  According to our analysis of the Commitment of Traders report, positioning in the pound is at an extreme and the short term Elliot Wave count suggests that relief may be in sight for the currency pair.

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro. 

Australian Dollar Breaks Higher as Gold Prices Hit New Records
Strong economic data and rising gold prices makes the Australian dollar one of our favorite currencies. The labor market in Australia remains very tight as the number of jobs advertised in Australian newspapers surged 7.1 percent last month. Inflation also continues to rise according to the TD Securities Inflation index, putting more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates. On top of that we have gold prices closing above $900 oz, which has helped to rally not only the Aussie, but also the New Zealand and Canadian dollars. Unfortunately for Canada, we do not expect the currency’s strength to last as economic data continues to sour. New motor vehicle sales fell 2.9 percent in November, the third straight monthly decline.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.

Dow Rebounds, Helping Only Some Carry Trades

The Dow rebounded 171 points today, helping carry trades recover. Unfortunately the recovery was not broad based as USD/JPY and GBP/JPY continued to sell off. Risk appetite has not fully returned to the market and we would be cautious of going long carry at the moment because earnings season could bring a lot of surprises.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.




By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

Contact Kathy Lien about this article at [email protected]



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105