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Thursday May 13, 2004 - 09:18:29 GMT -

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Dollar/Yen reaches new 7-month high

Daily Forex Technical Report 05-13-2004

New 7-Month High in Dollar Yen
Dollar Swiss Bounces Off 50-day SMA

Technical Outlook

The rally in the EURUSD stalled right at 1.1935/45, the moving average confluence and fibo resistance from the 5/5-5/11 bear wave. The corrective rally should give aggressive bears an opportunity to reinitiate short positions below the 10 & 200-day SMA cross at 1.1970. With stochastics oversold, bulls may find a playable range scenario for a possible near term basing at 1.1850, the 50% fibo of the Sep-Aug rally. More crucial support is at the 5/11 low at 1.1787. However, a decisive move lower cannot occur unless 1.1760 is taken out, which is the bottom of the 2-yr bull channel / Mar-26 low and lower Bollinger. A break above the 1.2180 3/5 high would be needed to negate bearish momentum. A flag pattern on the daily chart in USDJPY indicates that bulls remain in control, as yesterday's sell off was limited to the former 3/8 peak and 5/7 high. A break of the 3/11 high at 114, makes range support turned resistance at 115 the next immediate objective, followed by 116, the 138.2% fibo from the Mar bear wave. The rally may be subject to a bit of stalling at 114.60, the 50% fibo of 125.79-103.40. Bulls may have an opportunity to "buy on dips" at 112.42, the 5/12 low, followed by 112.00-112.10 (the 61.8% fibo from the Aug-Apr bear wave and the 38.2%of the Dec 02-Mar 04 bear wave). Below, another decent level to add to long USD positions will be 107.80/108.10, thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Mar bear wave and 100 SMA. The GBPUSD remains trapped between the 10-day SMA and 200-day EMA / lower Bollinger cross. With significant fibo and moving average resistance above, the sterling downtrend remains intact. Range players may be able to take advantage of 1.7555-1.7855. A break above 1.7855, the 20-day EMA / 50% fibo of the Nov-Feb bull wave would pave the way for a rally towards more significant resistance at 1.8000. The immediate target below the Fibo support, 200-day EMA / lower Bollinger cross at 1.7535/55 is 1.7375, the 38.2% fibo of 1.5614-1.9137. Yesterday's bounce off of the May 6th high and 50-day SMA support in USDCHF gave bulls an opportunity to reinitiate long positions. However, a break of the 5/11 high and 76.4% fibo at 4/26-5/5 bear wave at 1.3090/1.3100 would be needed to negate short-term bearish momentum and allow for a move towards 1.3200, the 50% fibo of Aug-Jan bear wave / upper Bollinger and 1.3230, the 4/26 high. Below yesterday's 1.2875 low and 50-day SMA support exposes the 5/5 base at 1.2695.


Comment from 04/20

On 03/30 GBPCHF had a high at 3425 before a quick retracement to the 3220 Low on 03/31, 205pts lower. The outlook is now slightly bullish since we are sitting on important S. Buyers on dip will step in at 2.3000/50 to exploit the 100 SMA, low BB and 38.2% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave. Above bears will look at 2 key areas: 3740/3780 and 3980/4030. The first area will suit aggressive bears who seek to exploit the High BB and 50% Fibo from the Nov 00 - May 03 bear wave. 3980/4030 will attract more conservative range players thanks to the current swing high and 123.6% Fibo from the Nov 02 - May 03 bear wave. Finally aggressive reversal bulls who are waiting for the current swing low's confirmation will get involved above yesterday's high at 3365.


The situation is still slightly bullish but the cross is stuck between solid Fib zones. As a result bulls and bears will have good opportunities. Bulls will step in at 2670/2700 in order to exploit the 200 SMA and Low BB. A sustained move below would then open the door to the wide 2.2200/2.2350 area where the 23.6% Fibo from the Nov - Mar bull wave is present. Above, aggressive bears will have a clear shot at 3070/3800 thanks to both the 20EMA and 100 SMA. 3350/3400 will attract more conservative reversal players (61.8% Fibo from the Aug01 - 03 bear wave) while 3800/3880 is to keep in mind for the bearish crowd thanks to the 50% Fibo from the Nov 00 - 03 bear wave.


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