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European Market Update: UK Retail Sales Miss Their Mark
ยท *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
ยท IT Nov Industrial Orders: M/M 3.6% v 0.1%e || Prior revised from -1.1% to -0.5% |||| Y/Y 13.0% v 6.8%e
ยท IT Nov Industrial Sales: M/M 0.3% v 2.1%e || Y/Y 3.6% v 6.6% prior
ยท UK Dec Retail Sales: M/M -0.4% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 2.7% v 3.4%e || Prior revised from 4.4% to 4.2%
ยท SP Q4 House Price Index Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.0%e
ยท *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
ยท Portuguese Finance Minister: Euro FX not a big problem at the moment
ยท Portuguese Finance Minister: Should wait to see Fed action on the economy
ยท Portuguese Finance Minister: US slowdown could be stronger than expected
ยท Portuguese Finance Minister: ECB has made the correct policy decisions
ยท ECB Report: Banks see tighter Q1 credit standards for companies
ยท ECB Report: Tighter credit may reflect long-term effects of the financial market crisis
ยท ECB Report: Q1 demand for company loans expected to fall slightly
ยท ECB Report: Banks see right housing loan credit standards in Q1
ยท ECB Report: Significantly negative net housing loan demand seen
ยท *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
ยท European fixed income futures are trading in positive territory on risk aversion today as the European indices trade lower on the back of declines in the US yesterday. The risk aversion theme has stuck with us as market participants continue to reassess the economic situation and the impact of the credit crisis. The European fixed income futures are outperforming long-gilts at the moment. Long-gilts spiked following weaker than expected retail sales in the UK, but the gains were short lived.
ยท On the commodity front crude oil broke back above the $90 handle ahead of the European equity market open, but is currently off of its best levels. Spot gold is currently trading lower in the session while copper futures are trading slightly higher.
ยท The European indices are in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day following declines in the US. Thus far the decline has been led by the European financials as increasing concerns that the US economy will slip into a recession over the coming months.
ยท The GBP was broadly lower overnight following the release of the December retail sales data in the UK. The GBP/USD was off 125 pips to 1.9575 in the aftermath of the data. The EUR/GBP was trading at 0.7470 and the GBP/JPY at 209.75. The JPY was off of its Asian opening highs as the Nikkei 225 managed to end the session in positive territory. The Bank of Japan's Fukui noted that Japanese stocks are falling more than other regions due to recent JPY appreciation. The USD at 107.10, EUR/JPY holding above the 156, its post- sub-prime pivot area. The commodity currencies stabilizing from their drop in the US session on Thurs. The USD/CAD at 1.0275 and the AUD/USD at 0.8765. The EUR/USD has maintained its consolidation between the 1.4600 and 1.4750 areas as market participants digest the US economic scenario and the possible impact on its European counterparts.
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