Thursday January 24, 2008 - 03:57:59 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
||While 106.20-30 supports we should move to test the 107.40-79 area before pulling back|
||The loss of 106.32 did indeed cause a move below 105.60 and down to the 104.95 support which held perfectly. I suspect therefore that we are now seeing the beginning of a correction higher. We appear to have seen the majority of the first leg but while 106.20-30 continues to support there is still room for gains towards the 107.40-79 area but we should expect a pullback. Only above 107.80-90 would maintain the upward momentum for a direct rally to 108.40 and 108.96. |
||Having seen the 104.95 target hold I think weâ€™ll get a period of correction that has potential to 108.00 and then 108.96 and probably 109.80. It probably wonâ€™t be seen but further resistance is seen at 110.94. (24th January)|
||With a firm bullish divergence in the 4-hour chart and a bounce from the 104.95 target I feel the downside is limited. I suspect we should see a move initially to the 107.40-79 area and that should provide a selling opportunity for a correction lower. Only an earlier break below 106.20 would threaten an earlier pullback to 106.07 and probably the 105.65-75 area which should hold. Further support is at 105.42. |
||We have seen 106.57 so far and I suspect 106.22 is possible before a correction. Only below highlights direct risk to 105.60 and 104.95 but this should cause a larger pullback. (16th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Cautiously I think we can firm up the end of Wave â€“v- at the 76.4% projection at 104.95. I feel this may only be Wave A of a new ABC decline but it should generate a correction in Wave B in the meantime.
A 50% retracement lies at 109.80 and a 61.8% at 110.94.
I feel we may see a small extension this morning in Wave â€“a- of the correction to the 107.40-79 area which should then trigger a correction.
I would caution here that this may not be a very quick correction and therefore we risk either a long Wave â€“b- or the development of a double zig-zag or triple three in this Wave B.
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