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Tuesday October 12, 2004 - 17:30:50 GMT
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Daily Forex Market Commentary Tuesday, October 12, 2004 by Global Forex Trading


Daily Commentary by currencies analysts, Global Forex Trading (source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=10122004)

The dollar made little progress on Monday amid holidays and the US and elsewhere. It traded sideways against the euro and the Swiss franc and slipped versus the pound and the yen. The market sentiment remains negative on the dollar, but donít open fresh short positions at these levels unless there is some confirmation.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar made only minor decline on Monday and this hardly makes a dent in the bearish sentiment. The upmove should resume shortly.

However, it will take a close above the 1.2460 peak to add confidence to expectations that this rally will continue. If successful, then the euro/dollar will probably extend its upmove to 1.2510.

The support at around 1.2370 held as expected on Monday and now it would take a break below the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2350 to signal a slide to 1.2330, 1.2310 and ultimately 1.2270.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell to a three-week low of 109.12 on Monday and it remains under selling pressure.

To confirm further weakness, dollar/yen must break below the 50-pip pivot at 109.15, which targets either 108.65 or 109.65. The downside target of 108.65 should be the most dollar/yen could see before consolidating.

Any recovery should hold below the resistance at 109.95, probably also below 109.65. This former level is strong, so it should hold. If it fails, then expect a more aggressive recovery to 110.40.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar marched higher on Monday for the third consecutive day and reached its highest levels of October.

It the recovery continues, then look for a test of the resistance at 1.8010. Further up, the pair would challenge the barrier at 1.8040. A break above this level would signal a test of the next resistance at 1.8075. There is strong resistance at 1.8120. An unexpected break above this strong level would target the pivotal peak at 1.8160.

Strong support is seen at 1.7930 and sterling/dollar should hold above it. If this level fails, then look for a drop to 1.7885. If this area gives way as well, then brace for a more aggressive decline to 1.7815. Distant support looms at 1.7740.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed o slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss made an unconvincing recovery on Monday, and this suggests that further weakness is in store.

A move below Fridayís low of 1.2468 is needed to rekindle the decline seen on Friday and the pair must then challenge the pivotal support at 1.2443. A break lower still would then test the pivotal low of 1.2376.

If it recovers further, then look for a test of the resistance at 1.2530. Only a break above this level would accelerate this upmove and the pair would then challenge 1.2590.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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