Friday January 25, 2008 - 05:19:04 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||While 1.9782 caps there should be a pullback to around 1.9678-86 before higher to 1.9889-00|
||The break above 1.9550 and then 1.9590 high triggered gains all the way to 1.9771 and just above with resistance also at 1.9782. Take care here as this could cause a pullback all the way back to the 1.9678-86 area (max 1.9657) from where I feel we should see further gains back to the 1.9782 high and follow-through to 1.9889-00 which again should cause a pullback. Only a direct move above 1.9782 would see a test of 1.9889-00 directly. Stronger resistance is at 1.9954. |
||Iâ€™ll take the 1.9335 low as the end of this part of the decline and this should lead to a week or so of upward correction towards 1.9954 and at most 2.0083. However, that area should cap. (23rd January)|
||Gains have been seen as expected from the 1.9335 low which have progressed well to target. A selling opportunity should come before too long. In fact, where price is right now while Iâ€™m writing the 1.9782 area has a good chance of causing a pullback below 1.4740 and 1.4705 towards the 1.9678-86 area. I suspect this will support â€“ at the most 1.9657. Therefore, any further losses will require breach of 1.4650 and if seen would suggest room for follow-through to 1.9558 and possibly 1.9463-95.|
||I am taking the 1.9335 low as the base for the correction higher â€“ even though the relationships are a bit loose. Thus only below 1.9335 directly would extend losses to 1.9254 and 1.9188. (23rd January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The spike down to 1.9335 was very frustrating but with bullish divergences in the 4 and 8 hour charts I suspect that was the end of Wave â€“v- and thus the end of Wave (c) of Wave (iii).
If this is the case then the normal corrective ratios would imply a 41.4% retracement in Wave (iv) at 1.9954 and 50% at 2.0083. Given Wave (ii) was quite deep I suspect the 1.9954 area will hold. If this occurs in 3 waves then we should allow for a more complex correction â€“ which I feel will occur.
Only directly below 1.9335 would resurrect the 1.9188 and 1.9122 targets.
Progress is being made with a 138.2% projection in Wave c at 1.9889 and a 161.8% around the 1.9954 target.
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