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Friday January 25, 2008 - 15:40:17 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (25 January 2008)

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4685 level and was capped around the $1.4775 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high and low were right around the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the move from $1.4310 to $1.4920.  European Central Bank member Weber dented rate cut expectations saying there are “wishful thinking.” All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee next week as policymakers likely deliberate between a 50bps easing and a 75bps easing following Tuesday’s surprise 75bps intermeeting easing.  Financial markets have somewhat stabilized since the Fed’s cut and traders will closely monitor upcoming data including consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods orders.  ECB member Stark said he is “not happy” with inflation but conceded the rise may be temporary.  Data released in Germany today saw the February GfK consumer climate index at 4.5%, unchanged from January’s level, while German December import prices were off 0.1% m/m and up 3.7% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4355 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥107.90 level and was supported around the ¥107.00 figure.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥110.10 to ¥104.95.  Bank of Japan Governor Fukui reported there is a “high probability that the Japanese economy will continue its gradual expansion towards the next fiscal year (from April) with stable prices. We are carrying out financial policies strongly confident that we will be able to have a stable economy…by continuing to provide the current accommodative financial environment for the time being.”  Data released in Japan overnight saw the December core consumer price index rise 0.8% y/y, the largest increase since March 1998, but the rise was mostly caused by higher costs rather than stronger private demand.  Minutes from the BoJ Policy Board’s late December meeting saw policymakers pledge to pay closer attention to U.S. downside economic risks.  The yen was also pressured on news the U.S. government’s fiscal stimulus package may be enacted shortly and that troubled U.S. bond insurers may be recapitalized, revitalizing demand by Japanese investors and short yen carry trades.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 4.10% to close at ¥13,629.16.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥104.20 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥159.10 level and was supported around the ¥157.80 level.  The British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥214.00 figure and was supported around the ¥211.35 level while the Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥97.90 level.  The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.2102 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.2288 and the pair’s weakest close since the yuan revaluation of July 2005.  Data released in China overnight saw December wholesale prices up 7.6% y/y from November’s 7.4% pace.



The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9845 level and was supported around the $1.9735 level.  Sterling moved higher on news that U.K. brewer Scottish & Newcastle Plc is being purchased by Carlsberg AS and Heineken NV for about ₤7.6 billion.  Also, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sentance yesterday indicated the markets are ignoring the upside risks to inflation.”  Other data released today saw English and Welsh corporate insolvencies off 7.3% y/y in 2007.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9260 level.  The euro weakened vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7410 level and was capped around the ₤0.7480 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0980 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0860 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 50% retracement of the move from CHF 1.0835 to CHF 1.1120.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1155 level.  The euro and British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6140 and CHF 2.1780 levels, respectively.

 

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