Wednesday October 13, 2004 - 00:12:59 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 13th October 2004 Price: 109.60
109.60 ... 109.90 ... 110.25 ... 110.40
109.35 ... 109.13 ... 108.65 ... 108.35
Bearish to 108.35-65
The correction to 110.09 looks to have completed the move & thus we find a bullish scenario tough. Only while 109.55 (currently being tested) holds could we see a reversal back higher to test the ideal Fibonacci retracement at 110.25 - and only above there would allow follow-through higher to 110.70 and then above 111.00.
We feel the risk is high that the 110.09 level completed the correction higher. We now look for a break of 109.55 to assist the move lower and allow losses back to 109.03-13 which could provide a small correction before losses that have an ideal target at 108.35. Earlier support is at 108.65. From this level we expect a reversal higher.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 11th 2004
With the break of 109.78 which we had labeled as the end of a triangle, we must seek an alternative structure which is guided by the fact that weekly cycles are now finding a low. Thus we now consider the 112.46 high now forms Wave (b) and from there we are seeing a complex decline that targets the 108.50 level at a minimum and probably 108.00 being extensions of the initial decline from 111.71 to 109.78. This should complete Wave (c) of the daily triangle and imply a choppy rally in Wave (d).
October 13th 2004
The peak at 110.09 looks to have completed the Wave -iv- of the decline and we now have targets from the Wave a lower to 109.78 and internally from 111.45 which both target the 108.35 level as the completion of the move lower. This would then appear to complete Wave C of a larger dialy triangle.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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