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Wednesday October 13, 2004 - 06:58:16 GMT
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Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

EUR/USD still teetering on the brink. Rally looks in doubt - but still in no-man's land technically.

1.2250 and 1.2380 are the two swing levels for EUR/USD. Key UK employment data up at 08:30 GMT.





October 13, 2004

Economic Data Today (all times GMT):

06:45 France CPI (Sep)
08:30 UK Unemployment Rate/Change (Sep)
14:30 UK Leading Indicator Index (Aug)
21:45 New Zealand Retail Sales (Aug)
Selected Data This Week:

Thu: Japan CGPI, Japan BOJ Report, Japan Consumer Confidence, Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision, Sweden Unemployment, US Trade Balance, US Weekly Crude Supplies
Fri: Norway Trade Balance, US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Empire Manufacturing, US Industrial Production, US Michigan Confidence


Market Commentary:

The USD continued its strength yesterday and briefly broke through the 1.2300 support level in EUR/USD. The complete erasure of all gains from Friday's poor US Payrolls showing is short term bearish, with 1.2380 needed to resurrect the bullish scenario. Current levels are a no-man's land if we zoom out a bit, with a break below 1.2250 needed to fully disappoint hopes for a rally. The wait until Friday's data may be too long for the market to range trade between those two swing levels - so we may get a technical signal one way or the other as soon as today on whether it's an up or down scenario. There's an outside chance that yesterday was simply a one-day distraction due to the passage of the FSC/ETI Repeal by the Senate.

Long term, I'm firmly in the bearish USD camp, but other signals are cause for concern in the short term - including yesterday's gold collapse and the possibility that we saw a temporary top in the oil market - which would be JPY and USD bullish.

Yesterday's data from Europe hardly gave EUR bulls cause for cheer either, as the German ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment disappointed drastically and was at its lowest since June of last year - a bad sign of declining confidence. That combined with plummeting Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers from France certainly didn't inspire the market to buy Euros. Let's see if today's data from the UK can save GBP/USD from the brink.


Technical Comments

EUR/USD: Briefly fell below 1.2300, but quickly righted itself yesterday. Still, the very short term view is bearish - with a break back below yesterday's lows and especially below 1.2250 consigning us once again to range-trading purgatory. A rise back to the 1.2380 level refutes the short term bearish outlook and would encourage the prospects for a break above 1.2440 and beginning of a new bull market.

GBP/USD: had a go at 1.7850 support yesterday on much lower than expected inflation data (after the previous day's PPI was massively higher than expected!) but managed to survive and has since risen back to 1.7900. A fall back below the 1.7850 support would likely bring on a test of 1.7700 area lows. A rise back to 1.8050, on the other hand, could swing GBP/USD higher to 1.8150.

USD/JPY: Is still consolidating after the huge recent sell-off and even briefly peeked above 110.00 yesterday. The bearish view here is preferred and if oil prices have found a top, the JPY could strengthen further (Japanese data tonight also important) Place stops at 110.30 bid or higher on shorts (USD/JPY has a distressing habit of overshooting support and resistance). Next target is the 107 low, though it may be slow going if the USD is strong against the Europeans.

EUR/JPY: Briefly broke the 135.00 area support yesterday, but found strong support overnight despite better than expected Japanese Current Account data. Will likely follow EUR/USD's fate in terms of the general direction. On a break back below 135.00, EUR/JPY may fall further to 133.50, the sell-off could continue to the 133.50 area, while 136.00 offers resistance.

AUD/USD: Support at the 0.7300 level has not held and the outlook darkens further if 0.7250 support can't hold. The 0.7360 upside swing level now appears very far off indeed. In general AUD may underperform the Europeans in the coming market cycle.

USD/CAD: Did find resistance in the 1.2600 area, but this resistance may not hold for long in a strong USD environment and if oil prices are falling. A break of 1.2600 could bring on 1.2750 and even 1.2850. A move to these levels would only represent a consolidation, however, in a longer term bear market for this pair that may take us to 1.2000 and beyond to the downside.


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Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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