User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday January 28, 2008 - 19:36:43 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Tuesday 29 January 2008

 

News and views

The New Zealand dollar made strong gains overnight, as the market shrugged off a poor day on Asian equity markets and weaker than expected US housing data. The NZD began on its lows around 0.7680, as equity market weakness (Nikkei down 4%, Shanghai down 7.2%) led to steady selling of yen crosses. But the offshore sessions saw strong demand for the euro, which in turn dragged NZD up through stop-losses to a high around 0.7770 this morning. The

Australian dollar was also well bid, though it initially ran into heavy selling at a technical resistance level around 0.8825.

US new home sales fell by 4.7% in December, and November’s 9% slump was revised to a near 13% plunge (though October was revised higher, providing some offset). Since their peak in July 2005, new home sales have fallen by 57% to a 604k pace – more devastating for players in that sector than in the early 1990s recession. The volatile prices data swung sharply negative in December, and perhaps related to that, the ratio of available housing inventory for sale to the monthly sales pace hit a new cyclical high. That contrasts with last week’s existing home sales report which showed a lower stock of unsold homes. The bottom line, though, is that there is no evidence here that housing might be finding a base.

The pound recovered from yesterday’s losses, which were triggered by very downbeat comments from BOE committee member Blanchflower. He said that interest rates in the UK must be cut sharply in the next few months to avoid being dragged into a slowdown by the US, and that worrying about inflation at this point “seems like fiddling while Rome burns”. Blanchflower is considered a ‘dove’ and was the only member to call for a cut at the last BoE meeting.

Euroland M3 grew 11.5% yr in December, reversing some of the spike in
previous months. But the details included an unchanged 11.1% yr growth rate for loans to the private sector, suggesting little material impact from the credit crunch at this stage. The ECB has acknowledged that M3 has been receiving a boost from the liquidation of riskier investments (outside the M3 definition) into cash (inside M3). Nevertheless, double-digit growth remains excessive and reminds us that there are upside inflation risks to consider over the medium to longer term. That said, there has been a wealth of survey evidence pointing to softer growth prospects in the near term, plus there is considerable downside risk associated with US economic weakness. So the case for an eventual easing by the ECB is building, but don’t expect anything soon (we are forecasting a cut in Q2).

 

Outlook

US officials are set to spend much of this week trying to boost market confidence: President Bush is expected to announce a fiscal package of $150bn or more in his State of the Union address later today; regulators are working on a plan to recapitalise the struggling bond insurers; and the Fed’s change of tack suggests that it will deliver on the 50bp of easing that the market is pricing in for next week’s review.

To the extent that these efforts are successful, the New Zealand dollar could be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the short term. Any tangible evidence that the stimulus is working is probably months away, leaving the US dollar in the meantime to struggle with the burden of increasingly unattractive yields. In contrast, the NZD would find favour as one of the few major currencies where further tightening is still on the cards – even more so if the US avoids recession.

Beyond this, it will take some genuine improvement in the economic data to dispel fears of recession and allow markets to recover. The US data calendar is heavy this week, with the highlights being GDP and non-farm payrolls. Softer consumption data late in the year adds some downside risks to our forecast of 1% (annualised) GDP growth, while payrolls are expected to improve on the weak December figures, though these may be revised higher. Local data this week is relatively minor and would probably be lost in the mix regardless.

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast
Aus Dec NAB Business Survey 15 n/f
US Dec Durable Goods Orders –0.1% 2.0%
Nov House Prices %yr –6.1% –7.1%
Jan CB Consumer Confidence 88.6 84.0
2007 ISM Survey Revisions
Jpn Dec Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9%
Dec Household Spending %yr –0.6% –0.3%
Dec Retail Trade %yr 1.6% 0.1%
Eur Nov Current Account Balance €bn 1.3 n/f
UK Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey 8 n/f
Can Jan Business Conditions Orders –3.0 n/f

Latest Research Papers/Publications
• NZ Economic Overview January 2008 (28 January)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (28 January)
• RBNZ Jan OCR Review (24 January)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (21 January)
• RBNZ OCR Preview (17 January)
• NZ Q4 CPI Review (17 January)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)


Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 29 January 2008. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105