Tuesday January 29, 2008 - 03:44:09 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD
||There is still no obvious topping pattern - while 0.8850-60 supports look for 0.8928 possibly higher|
||We only saw 4 points below the 0.8770 support and from there we saw gains all the way to the 0.8898 resistance. This is a retracement target but hourly momentum has not developed a bearish divergence (although 4-hour has.) Thus while 0.8850-60 supports we could see another attempt higher. Break of 0.8898 would cause follow-through to 0.8928. Take care as this could force a pullback at the very least. Only above 0.8930 extends the gains to 0.8950-60 and 0.8983.|
||Nothing has really been convincing but before getting too bullish Iâ€™d like to see a break above 0.8900 and only then would the 0.9018 peak appear a possible target again. (28th January)|
||While there is no obvious short term momentum reversal signal we should be aware of the key supports. The first is at 0.8850-60 and only below suggests the risk of follow-through. If seen then look for losses to extend to 0.8790-10 followed by 0.8766 and 0.8745. If this is seen it would suggest the 0.8895 peak formed a key high and would open the downside for further tests.|
||I remain bearish in the longer term but the pullback higher has been quite persistent. We need a break back below 0.8725 then 0.8586-09 to keep the downside structure intact for 0.8511 again. (25th January)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The peak at 0.8852 could still be part of a complex Wave â€“ii- that could be a flat or triangle â€“ unlikely but we canâ€™t completely forget the chance of an expanded flat.
Any earlier move above 0.88520 sees Wave â€“ii- extend to the 76.4% retracement at 0.8898.
If this breaks then we may have to consider a type of flat correction back to the 0.9018 high again in a larger flat Wave B.
Below 0.8730 would confirm losses to the minor Wave b at 0.9609 while not forgetting the 76.4% retracement at 0.8591.
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