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Tuesday January 29, 2008 - 03:44:09 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD

 

Price:                            0.8868

Resistance: 0.8898 0.8928 0.8955 0.8983
Support: 0.8850 0.8831 0.8800 0.8766

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: There is still no obvious topping pattern - while 0.8850-60 supports look for 0.8928 possibly higher

Daily Bullish: We only saw 4 points below the 0.8770 support and from there we saw gains all the way to the 0.8898 resistance. This is a retracement target but hourly momentum has not developed a bearish divergence (although 4-hour has.) Thus while 0.8850-60 supports we could see another attempt higher. Break of 0.8898 would cause follow-through to 0.8928. Take care as this could force a pullback at the very least. Only above 0.8930 extends the gains to 0.8950-60 and 0.8983.
MT Bullish: Nothing has really been convincing but before getting too bullish I’d like to see a break above 0.8900 and only then would the 0.9018 peak appear a possible target again.  (28th January)
Daily Bearish: While there is no obvious short term momentum reversal signal we should be aware of the key supports. The first is at 0.8850-60 and only below suggests the risk of follow-through. If seen then look for losses to extend to 0.8790-10 followed by 0.8766 and 0.8745. If this is seen it would suggest the 0.8895 peak formed a key high and would open the downside for further tests.
MT Bearish: I remain bearish in the longer term but the pullback higher has been quite persistent. We need a break back below 0.8725 then 0.8586-09 to keep the downside structure intact for 0.8511 again. (25th January)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

28th January

The peak at 0.8852 could still be part of a complex Wave –ii- that could be a flat or triangle – unlikely but we can’t completely forget the chance of an expanded flat.

Any earlier move above 0.88520 sees Wave –ii- extend to the 76.4% retracement at 0.8898.

If this breaks then we may have to consider a type of flat correction back to the 0.9018 high again in a larger flat Wave B.

Below 0.8730 would confirm losses to the minor Wave b at 0.9609 while not forgetting the 76.4% retracement at 0.8591.

Ian Copsey

 

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