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Wednesday October 13, 2004 - 12:48:32 GMT

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Daily Forex Market Commentary Wednesday, October 13, 2004 by GFT

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading

The dollar clawed higher across the board on Tuesday, but it really made these gains only in early European trading and then trimmed them in the US market. This confirms that itís already seen the bulk of its decline on Friday after the soft employment figures, but itís premature to call for the end of the dollar decline. More choppy trading is in store for Wednesday and itís more likely that the market will become more decided by Thursday.


The euro/dollar made another stab on the downside on Tuesday, but failed once again to break out from Fridayís range and trimmed losses. This weak decline still doesnít make a dent in the overall dollar bearish sentiment, but exercise caution.

The pair has immediate resistance at 1.2350 and a break higher would signal a rally to 1.2380. However, only a close above the 1.2460 peak would add confidence to expectations that this rally will continue. If successful, then the euro/dollar will probably extend its upmove to 1.2510.

The support at around 1.2370, along with all the others in the 1.23 handle, was smashed on Tuesday, and only 1.2270 held. This remains the critical level to break, and if it does, then look for a dip to 1.2245. A slide to 1.2210 is unlikely on the day.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


One day after sinking to a three-week low of 109.12, dollar/yen spiked up to the 110.00 area. Its inability to hold on to its gains triggered profit-taking sales that sent it back to 109.70.

The pair should now pull back down, but to confirm further weakness, it must still break below the 50-pip pivot at 109.15, which targets either 108.65 or 109.65. The downside target of 108.65 should be the most dollar/yen could see before consolidating.

Any further recovery must now break above 110.10. Only a close above the 110.40 area would confirm that dollar/yen has already bottomed and it will now take a stab at the 109.95 area.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Sterling/dollar experienced unusually volatility on Tuesday. It saw the expected strength only in early trading, when climbed to 1.7991. Reports of a sharp pull back in inflation sent the UK fixed income prices soaring and the pound reeling down because the odds have increased that the Bank of England will at least pause, if not end fully its tightening cycle. The pair spiked down as low as 1.7844 following the report, but it then regained its footing in New York. Sterling/dollar should further chip away at these losses.

It the recovery continues, then expect the pound to break above 1.7970 and test the resistance at 1.8010. Further up, the pair would challenge the barrier at 1.8040. A break above this level would signal a test of the next resistance at 1.8075. Strong resistance at 1.8120 ands an unexpected break above this strong level would target the pivotal peak at 1.8160.

Below 1.7885, support is seen at 1.7844 and then at 1.7815. Distant support remains at 1.7740.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed o slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss experienced only mild weakness in early Tuesday trading and then the pair made an aggressive rally to 1.2606. It remained firmly within an inside range and it then trimmed gains in the US market. Itís likely that this weakness will persist on Wednesday as well.

Below 1.2530, the market would shoot for another test at Fridayís low of 1.2468. A break below this level is needed to signal the resumption of that decline. Dollar/Swiss would then challenge the pivotal support at 1.2443. A break lower still would then test the pivotal low of 1.2376.

If it recovers further, then look for a re-test of the resistance at 1.2590. Only a break above the1.2610 level would accelerate this upmove and the pair would then challenge the 1.2685 area.

Oscillators are mixed.

LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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