Monday February 4, 2008 - 04:01:25 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||The 1.4731-69 area should now support for a move back towards 1.4953|
||Price bounced nicely from the 1.4950 target to generate a solid correction. This should reach the 1.4731-69 area which should hold and cause a reversal higher. There are two ways the next rally can occur â€“ the first as a sideways consolidation with a peak around 1.4913-20 which would then be followed by a final rally above 1.4966. Alternatively we could see this rally develop directly and this would imply breach of 1.4920 to reach the 1.4950-66 area again from where a correction should develop.|
||The break above 1.4832 means we need to be aware of a possible follow-through but take care at 1.4955-76 and then 1.5025 and 1.5075. Only beyond signals 1.5210 at least. (31st January)|
||The reversal from 1.4953 was just about perfect. We are due a cycle high this week but we should take care. While I do expect a final new high we must be aware that the downside is due to begin very soon. Current support which I feel will hold today is at 1.4731-69. Thus before getting too bearish look for breach of the lower 1.4731 level which, if seen, would push price lower through 1.4704 for 1.4659. This could well hold so be careful. Next support is at 1.4560-89 & 1.4503-09.|
||I do feel a major high is due soon but we could have to wait for a test of the 1.5210 area. Only an earlier cap below 1.4966 that subsequently breaks 1.4700-30 would suggest earlier losses. (4th February)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The corrective low at 1.4800 yesterday suggests that Wave â€“iii- is still in progress and the 138.2% projection lies at 1.4950. The 1.4800 low seen yesterday appears to be Wave iv of Wave â€“c- higher and this would project a 61.8% Wave v target around the 1.4950-66 area.
If there is any aggressive move then the next likely target is at the 176.4% projection in Wave â€“iii- at 1.5072.
Also note the wave equality target in larger Wave â€“c- at 1.4976. The 138.2% projection is not until 1.5210.
Wave â€“iii- seen with a 50% retracement in Wave â€“iv- at 1.4731. This would imply a move towards the 76.4% projection to the 138.2% projection in Wave â€“c- at 1.5210.
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