Thursday October 14, 2004 - 00:40:55 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 14th October 2004 Price: 109.65
109.80 ... 110.25 ... 110.40 ... 110.60
109.35 ... 109.13 ... 108.75 ... 108.40
Cautiously bearish to 108.30-40
No break of the 110.25 resistance and this still remains key to the upside. There is support at 109.45-50 and while this holds the chance of breaking the resistance is still possible. Should this be seen, then we would look for a rally to the 111.00 area quite quickly. Further resistance is found at 111.30-70..
Though we had not expected a second test higher thhis has still held below the key 110.25 resistance and while this remains intact we still cautiously hold a bearish stance with a break of 109.38 raising the chances of a move down to 108.75-85 and to the ideal target around 108.30-40 where we feel a low should be in place. Further support is at 107.60.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 11th 2004
With the break of 109.78 which we had labeled as the end of a triangle, we must seek an alternative structure which is guided by the fact that weekly cycles are now finding a low. Thus we now consider the 112.46 high now forms Wave (b) and from there we are seeing a complex decline that targets the 108.50 level at a minimum and probably 108.00 being extensions of the initial decline from 111.71 to 109.78. This should complete Wave (c) of the daily triangle and imply a choppy rally in Wave (d).
October 13th 2004
The peak at 110.09 looks to have completed the Wave -iv- of the decline and we now have targets from the Wave a lower to 109.78 and internally from 111.45 which both target the 108.35 level as the completion of the move lower. This would then appear to complete Wave C of a larger dialy triangle.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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