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Thursday October 14, 2004 - 09:43:21 GMT
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FOREX:US OPEN MARKET POINTS 10-14-04

Balance This

After two straight days of terrible Euro-zone eco data now comes the greenback’s turn to face the market. Having unwound all of its NFP gains and more so, the euro hit a low of 2230 at the beginning of yesterday’s US session on the back mildly lower oil prices and continually poor economic reports. However, as oil spiked back up above $53/bbl on bullish heating oil inventory data at around 18:00 GMT, euro followed suit gaining 70 points in matter of 10 minutes. The unusual rally which came at a time when most London dealers had already left their desks for the day, caught dollar bulls completely off guard triggering stops all the way up to 2350 level.

Tonight, news out of Moscow that a backbone oil pipeline is burning in the Ivanovo region put further bid into the euro. Although according to TASS, the damaged section of the trunkline has been cut off and Russian officials made assurances that no disruptions in oil supply will occur, nervous traders decided to be safe rather than sorry and added to their long euro positions. Dealers are also anticipating a massive US Trade Balance deficit of -$51.2Bn to be reported today at 12:30 GMT which would exceed July’s record gap of -$50.1Bn.

The cost of oil in July stood at an average of $33/bbl, however by August it reached a high of $47/bbl on the 19th of that month. Therefore, the event risk in today’s number could be to the downside as the Trade Balance could print -$55Bn or worse based on higher oil imports. With the market already “front running” the number it would be difficult to gauge just how much additional value the euro bulls will be able to squeeze from the move. Should the number surprise to the upside, however, printing below the psychologically important -$50.0Bn level expect a full reversal in the EUR/USD as we may trade right back to yesterday’s lows of 2230.







FX Spot Overnight

- EUR rallies back to 2360 awaiting US Trade data
- JPY contained between 109.80-109.40
- GBP challenges the 8000 figure on back of oil and US eco data
- CHF breaks 2500 stays stronger than the euro off yesterday’s massive CHF buying by funds



Upcoming Events

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Trade Balance (AUG) Expected–51.2Bn , Previous –50.1Bn
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Import Price Index m/m (SEP) Expected 0.5% , Previous 1.7%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Import Price Index y/y (SEP) Expected 0.5% , Previous 7.2%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 9) Expected 340K, Previous 335K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Continuing Claims (OCT 2) Expected 2868K, Previous 2864K

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) Int'l Merchandise Trade (AUG) Expected C$6.9, Previous C$6.2
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m (AUG) Expected –1.3% , Previous 2.3%

13:30GMT – (9:30 AM EST) US Bernanke speaks at Monetary Conference in Washington
18:30GMT – (1:30 PM EST) US Fed's Geithner Speaks on Financial Services Growth in Atlanta

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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