Thursday October 14, 2004 - 19:13:20 GMT
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SHORT LIVED BEAR PARADE ON WEAK US DATA
The New York session began with a flurry of activity that saw the dollar trade down on the back of more weak US Data. Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected (340K) at 352k and the US Trade Balance widened to the second largest ever to 54 billion which is higher than the forecasted 51.4. EUR/USD started the morning at 1.2365/70 and quickly shot to a high of 1.2415/20 on the release, and continues to trade right under the 1.2400 level. USD/CAD reacted in similar fashion as it shot down to 1.2510/15 which is slightly above a big support level of 1.2500 and shot right back to 1.2550 where it seems to have found a nice range. Meanwhile GBP/USD shot up to a session high of 1.8040/45 before snapping back a session low of 1.7935/40. Much of the market indecision could be because of the slew of economic releases tomorrow. Early releases include PPI, Empire Manufacturing Report and Retails Sales figures, followed by Industrial Production and Univ. of Michigan shortly after.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING We continue to see a strong resistance level in EUR/USD just ahead of 1.245 on a daily chart and feel that tomorrow’s data might be the engine that could drive EUR/USD to 1.25. On the downside we see good support at 1.2350 and then again at 1.2220/25 which was yesterdays lows.
GAIN AN EDGE We look to buy EUR/USD just ahead of 1.2350 with a stop at 1.2330 and a take profit at 1.2430.
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