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Friday February 8, 2008 - 11:25:22 GMT
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European Market Update: Trading Quiet Ahead of G7 Summit

  *** ECONOMIC DATA ***

· UK JAN NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.5% v 0.6% prior

· SZ Jan CPI: M/M -0.3% v -0. 5%e || Y/Y 2.4% v 2.2%e

· SZ Jan SECO Consumer Climate: 14 v 11e

· GE Dec Trade Balance: €10.8B v €16.8Be || Prior revised from €19.3B to €19.5B

· GE Dec Current Account: €15.9B v €17.0Be || Prior revised from €20.0B to €19.3B

· GE Dec Imports: 5.3% v 2.8%e

· GE Dec Export: -1.2% v 1.1%e

· SW Dec Industrial Production: M/M 0.1% v -0.2%e || Y/Y 1.2% v 0.3%e

· SW Dec Industrial Orders: 7.4% v 0.2%e || Y/Y -1.3% v 0.3% prior

· *** SPEAKERS COMMENTS ***

· UK Wages +4.0% in the 3 months to the end of January and +3.3% to the end of December [IDS]

· UK Chancellor Darling: Central banks must take decisions correct for their economies; U.K. inflation is low || Adds that UK economy is very strong || Very confident that the UK's economy will get through difficult situation || Says countries should take own fiscal action.|| Treasury mulling Northern Rock bids equally.

· GE Finance Minister: Euro-Zone 2008 GDP Growth of 1. 7% Possible

· GE Finance Minister: Germany and Euro Zone are not facing Recession

· GE Finance Minister: Unable to criticize ECB policy Given high CPI

· GE Finance Minister: The ECB's main responsibility is to Combat Inflation

· GE Finance Minister: German inflation to slow over the next 12 months

· Fed's Fisher: Growth poised to accelerate in H2

· Fed's Fisher: His future rate stance depends on economic data

· Fed's Fisher: Fed has tools to fix problems in the banking system

· Fed's Fisher: Fed must take care not to "juice up" inflation

· Fed's Yellen: The Fed has a core responsibility to guard against systemic risks

· Fed's Yellen: Fed needs to guard against an extreme downside risk to the economy

· Fed's Yellen: Fed can withdraw cuts to prevent bubbles

· Fed's Yellen: If the dollar levels off the inflation impetus disappear

· Fed's Yellen: “Not confident" that the U.S. will avoid a recession

· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

· The European fixed income futures have been broadly lower in the session with little data on the horizon to move them around, but have began to rebound as the equity markets have started to decline. The German yield cure has been flattening overnight as the long-end continues to outperform. The Agence France Trésor announced plans overnight to sell a new 15-year index-linked OATi in the coming weeks, while the Italian Dipartimento del Tesoro announced that it will tap the 4.25 October 2012 BTP on February 13.

· The European equity indices opened broadly higher in the session following results from Julius Baer, which beat estimates, as well as a slight ease in concerns surrounding the market's near-term outlook. The indices followed a downward path throughout the session, and are currently around session lows. Ahead of the open in the US today earnings are expected from Coventry Health Care, and Weyerhaeuser.

· Consolidation was the theme in currencies during the European morning ahead of the Tokyo G7 summit meeting. Dealers cited technical factors were cited for the listless trading environment following Thursday's central bank decisions in Europe. The EUR/USD is maintaining a 1. 4430 to 1.4520 range. Downside momentum seems likely to build for the Euro as officials seem to confirm what the ECB hinted at yesterday in terms of economic growth outlook. The EU Almunia's noted that some indicators in the US point clearly to an increased risk of recession, which will impact Europe. Almunia added that the EU will lower its economic growth forecasts on Feb 21. The GBP firmed against the major pairs. The GBP/USD is probing the 1.95 level and EUR/GBP softer at 0.7430-area. Dealers cited some decent demand from Asian names in the session. Czech inflation data justified yesterday's 25bp rate hike. The USD price showing some signs of decouple from recent commodity moves as Gold re-approaches its all-time highs. Electricity shortages are leading to mine closures in S. Africa. And are distorting supply/demand angle.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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