Friday October 15, 2004 - 00:15:28 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 15th October 2004 Price: 109.65
109.70 ... 110.25 ... 110.40 ... 110.60
109.35 ... 109.13 ... 108.85 ... 108.40
While 109.70-90 holds we remain cautiously bearish to 108.30-40 before higher
Further losses seen as expected and the 109.70-90 level now acts as important resistance. If a break is seen above here then a test of the 110.20-25 corrective peak looks likely with a break triggering gains up to the 110.85-00 area where a pullback is likely. Further resistance is at the 111.45 peak.
We feel that the decline to 109.13 is encouraging although has not quite developed in a structure which we would have expected. Never-the-less, while 109.70-90 holds we still feel the greater risk is lower to the 108.75-85 area at least with the 108.35-40 target still valid. However, if seen we would then look for a reversal.
Elliott Wave Comments:
October 11th 2004
With the break of 109.78 which we had labeled as the end of a triangle, we must seek an alternative structure which is guided by the fact that weekly cycles are now finding a low. Thus we now consider the 112.46 high now forms Wave (b) and from there we are seeing a complex decline that targets the 108.50 level at a minimum and probably 108.00 being extensions of the initial decline from 111.71 to 109.78. This should complete Wave (c) of the daily triangle and imply a choppy rally in Wave (d).
October 13th 2004
The peak at 110.09 looks to have completed the Wave -iv- of the decline and we now have targets from the Wave a lower to 109.78 and internally from 111.45 which both target the 108.35 level as the completion of the move lower. This would then appear to complete Wave C of a larger dialy triangle.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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