Monday February 11, 2008 - 11:57:16 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-Feb-2008....1228 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0964/68....Buyers on Dips Likely
R: 1.1020 / 1.1060-70
S: 1.0960 / 1.0910
Despite the losses seen on Friday, USD-CHF closed last week with gains. However, this week the pair is likely to be ranged within 1.0900 and 1.1100, rather than any strong directional move. Note the Resistance for the week is at 1.1085, on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 1.1193 (08-Jan) and 1.1105 (07-Feb).
For today the immediate Support is at 1.0960. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.0910. Dip towards the latter is likely to see buying interest. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.1020 and 1.1060-70, the statistically projected Max High for the day.
GBP-USD @ 1.9489/94....Moving up currently
R: 1.9520 / 1.9560 / 1.9618
S: 1.9440 / 1.9380 / 1.9340-37
GBP-USD had a sharp fall last week to a low of 1.9388 and remains under pressure. There could be some chances of a fall towards 1.9340-37 this week, which has been the low for the year so far. A break below that may not be seen. In fact, there is Support near 1.9405-9385 also, on a trendline joining Lows at 1.7252 (Apr-06), 1.9337 (Jan-08) and 1.9388 (Feb-08). Instead, a short-covering rally towards Resistance at 1.9650-60 (20-Day MA) could be seen. Such a rally is likely to see fresh selling interest emerge. Thus the pair is likely to stay within 1.9340-9650 (possibly 1.9404-9650), with selling on rallies likely.
The pair hit a low of 1.9404 in the morning and has seen a sharp bounceback, which now faces a Resistance at 1.9520. Above that the Resistance is at 1.9560-66, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Support is at 1.9420-05 and then at 1.9380. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.9356. We are holding a Long position currently, however we also have a Sell order.
GBP 10K Long at 1.9405, SL 1.9380 (up from 1.9300), TP 1.9600. As soon as the market trades
at 1.9540 now, put a TSL up to 1.9440.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.9620, SL 1.9690, TP 1.9360
See UK Trade Balance chart at
See UK CPI Chart at
AUD-USD @ 0.9012/16...Bullish, buy dip
R: 0.9046 / 0.9080 / 0.9120
S: 0.9000 / 0.8960
AUD-USD has been firm during the month so far after the RBA rate hike on 05-Feb. It has got a further boost today from the RBA Quarterly monetary policy statement, which was hawkish. Now the pair is likely to move towards 0.9080 this week, which falls on a trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 0.9403 (07-Nov) and 0.9103 (04-Feb). A rally above that could lead to a further upmove towards 0.9140, on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the highs of 0.9023 (15-Jan) and 0.9103 (04-Feb). This week the immediate Support would come in at 0.8940, which comes on a trendline joining the lows of 0.8511 (22-Jan) and 0.8874 (07-Feb). We expect buyers on dips. Australian Labor Force data for January is to come out on Thursday. Please click on
The pair is currently near its statistically projected Max High for the day of 0.9046 and the Resistance is at 0.9080. Above that the Resistance would be at 0.9120. On the downside the Support is at 0.9000 and then at 0.8960-56, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. Buying dip would be recommended.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 15K at 0.8970, SL 0.8900, TP 0.9100
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