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Monday February 11, 2008 - 11:59:42 GMT
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*EUROPEAN MARKET UPDATE: UK PPI INPUT HIGHEST SINCE LATE 1981

*EUROPEAN MARKET UPDATE: UK PPI INPUT HIGHEST SINCE LATE 1981

· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***

· FR Dec Industrial Production: M/M 0.7% v 0.7%e || Prior revised from -1.5% to -1. 7% |||| Y/Y 1.2% v 1.7%e || Prior revised from 2.5% to 2.1%

· FR Dec Manufacturing Production: M/M 0.3% v 0.7%e || Prior revised from -1.3% to -1.5% |||| Y/Y 0.8% v 2.0%e || Prior revised from 2.3% to 2. 0%

· SW Dec Activity Index Level: 123.3 v 124.0 prior

· NO CPI: M/M -0.4% v -0.4%e || Y/Y 3.7% v 3.7%e

· NO CPI Underlying: M/M -0.7% v -0.4%e || 1.9% v 2.1%e

· NO Jan Producer Prices Including Oil: M/M 2.5% v -0.2%e || Y/Y 20.4% v 17.2%e

· IT Dec Industrial Production: M/M -0.5% v 0.5%e || Prior revised from -0.9% to -1.1% |||| Y/Y -6.4% v -2.7%e || Y/Y nsa -4.0% v -1.0%e

· UK Jan PPI Input: M/M 2. 6% v 1.0%e || Prior revised from 0.5% to 1.4% |||| Y/Y 19.1% v 14.4%e (highest since Nov 1981) || Prior revised from 11.3% to 12.2%

· UK Jan PPI Output: M/M 1.0% v 0.4%e || Prior revised from 0.5% to 0.4% |||| Y/Y 5.7% v 5.1%e

· UK Jan PPI Output Core: M/M 0.8% v 0.3%e || Prior revised from 2.6% to 3.1%e

· UK Dec Visible Trade Balance: -£7.57B v -£7.37Be || Prior revised from -£7.37B to -£7.91B

· UK Dec Total Trade Balance: -£4.72B to -£4.4B || Prior revised from -£4.37B to -£4. 8B

· UK Dec Trade Balance Non-EU: -£4.08B v -£4.4Be || Prior revised from -£4.44B to -£4.40B

· UK Dec DCLG House Prices: 9.1% v 8.0%e || Prior revised from 9.5% to 9.7%

· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***

· ECB Weber: Wait and see stance on inflation not appropriate

· ECB Weber: There is no signal towards monetary easing

· ECB Weber: ECB is ready to do anything to counter inflation

· ECB Weber: Bundesbank still sees 2008 German GDP growth of 1.6%

· ECB Weber: Sees serious inflation developments that are a cause for concern

· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

· European fixed income futures are currently mixed in the session, while there is a general steepening of the German yield curve. Gilts are currently under-performing following stronger than expected readings on all of the PPI input and output readings, with special attention paid to the y/y input reading, which reached its highest level since late-1981. With the exception of the PPI data in the UK, the overall feel of the session has been rather dry, and is expected to remain that way as there are no economic numbers scheduled in the US, nor are there any central bank speakers scheduled in Europe or the US. One note worth mentioning, the bid- to-cover on the German bubill auction was 2.5x today, rather light when compared to the 4.0x at the previous auction. Looking ahead at the schedule this week, supply is expected at ¬9.0B in the Euro-Zone, with Germany scheduled to top-up the 4.00% January 2018 Bund, and Italy scheduled to top the 4.25% October 2012 BTP for ¬3.0B; both auctions are scheduled for Wednesday. In the UK the DMO is scheduled to sell £4.0B in 4.50% December 2042 gilts on Thursday. In terms of economic this will be an exciting week in the Euro-Zone as the German Zew survey will be released for February, as well as preliminary Q4 GDP. Also on the horizon this week it the Euro-Zone industrial production for December will be released, along with advanced Q4 GDP, and the ECB''s monthly report for February. Over in the UK the data front is packed this week as well, with CPI, and RPI data due for January, as well as December average earnings data, and the BOE''s quarterly inflation report.

· The European indices are currently trading in negative territory in the session as the market remains somewhat pessimistic about the near-term outlook for the general marketplace. Societé Generale detailed plans for its ¬5.5B capital increase overnight, noting that they will sell 116M shares at ¬47.50/share. The bank also guided 2008 post-tax ROE in a range of 19%-20%. Elsewhere shares of Prudential were lower on speculation about a possible break up of the company. On the analyst action front, Goldman Sachs cut its view on the European construction sector overnight. Looking ahead to the US pre-market schedule, the earnings schedule is rather light, however earnings are expected from Enterprise Group Holdings, as well as Loews Corporation this morning.

· In commodities crude oil is currently hovering around the unchanged level, fighting to hold position about the $90-handle. Venezuelan president Chavez reportedly threatened to halt US oil sales over the recent Exxon row, and speculated that such actions could drive oil prices as high as $200/barrel. Elsewhere the Oman Oil Minister said that Oman''s oil production will rise by around 11% in 2008 to 790K bpd. Spot gold has remained above the $920-handle for the duration of the European session thus far, while spot silver and copper futures are enjoying some time in positive territory.

· The USD was mixed in a quiet start of the trading week. The G7 did not single out US dollar or Euro in their official statement scaled down rhetoric on China FX policy. The risk aversion theme is helping the JPY and CHF firm against the major currencies. EUR/JPY at 155.10, lower by 100 pips since the start of Asian trading today. The EUR/CHF is holding below the 1.60-handle. The GBP was firmer following its PPI data as the Y/Y input prices rose to its highest level since 1981. GBP/USD rebounded from 1.9400 to probe the 1.95-level in the aftermath of the inflation data.

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