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Friday October 15, 2004 - 07:22:20 GMT
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Daily Forex Trading Strategies by John Hardy at Saxo Bank

Currency markets unwilling to break out yesterday. Perhaps today's barrage of data will finally push EUR/USD higher through 1.2440 and on to 1.2600 next week.

Currencies yesterday under the spell of energy markets.





October 15, 2004


Economic Data Today (all times GMT)

08:00 Norway Trade Balance (Sep)
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (Aug)
12:30 US PPI (Sep) expected at 0.1% and 0.2% ex Food and Energy
12:30 US Retail Sales (Sep) expected at 0.7% & 0.3% Less Autos
12:30 US Empire Manufacturing (Oct) expected at 25.00
13:15 US Industrial Production (Sep) and Capacity Utilization (Sep)
13:50 US University of Michigan Confidence (Oct P) expected at 94.0


Market Commentary

No real change in the outlook today - yesterday saw a false start for those hoping for a decline in the USD. At first, the USD crumbled on the worse than expected jobless claims and trade deficit numbers, but then quickly righted itself as some traders were perhaps reluctant to commit themselves ahead of today's barrage of data.

"Today may finally be the day". Seems like I've been saying that for a month now - but this has been one of the most rangebound markets in the last 30 years - and the range can't hold forever. Let's see if we get one of those crazy Friday's that are not so uncommon in currency markets. Seems like there's an awful lot of consensus out there that this range market will hold - if it doesn't there are likely some very big bets that will have to be taken off the market. When this happens before a weekend, you can sometimes get an exaggerated effect. So, if EUR/USD breaks above 1.2440, we could see a very rapid acceleration to something like 1.2580 on bad US data.

As far as today's data - keep an eye on the Retail Sales number, as the US consumer is practically the be-all and end-all of the world economy. This and the more forward-looking Empire Manufacturing number will likely be used to get a feel on how the US economy is doing.

Further signs of slowing in China, including a report out from GM that China sales have been disappointing could be a cause for concern for the JPY as import growth is slowing in China, which is Japan's largest export market.


Technical Comments

EUR/USD: Support comes in at 1.2350 and a break below 1.2300 could polish off the recent rally. But we prefer the view that the rally will continue upward with a break of 1.2440 possibly generating a very sharp rally with an eventual target of 1.2600 or higher.

GBP/USD: Faces underperformance as GBP is losing ground against CHF and EUR and may continue to do so. GBP/USD may nonetheless rally towards 1.8050 again and could even spill over towards 1.8100 in the coming days. Important support lies around 1.7925 and then 1.7850.

USD/CHF: CHF is very strong in this environment of weak stock markets. USD/CHF looks to fall lower towards the 1.2200 area low on a break of 1.2400. Resistance comes in at 1.2475.

USD/JPY: Is a bit sluggish after the huge downmove recently from 111.50. 109.00 is a huge support area and a break of that level could send USD/JPY on its way to 107 support.

EUR/JPY: Did follow through to 136.00, which is a key pivot area - a strong break through that resistance may put EUR/JPY on the path to a retest of the 137.50 high. A fall lower through 135.00 support, however, would have decidedly bearish consequences.

AUD/USD: Surprised with its strength yesterday, as two themes are struggling for attention here. On the one hand, a slow down in Chinese metal demand is a bad sign on the "commodity currency" theme - at the same time - the carry aspect of this high-yielding currency is very attractive as yields are falling. Reattaining the 0.7300 level is a promising sign for bulls, though 0.7350 is need to encourage the idea that AUD/USD could swing higher to new highs around 0.7500. A break back below 0.7250 and especially 0.7225 has more bearish implications.

USD/CAD: found resistance on higher oil prices, but has bounced again after flirting with the 1.2500 low. Outlook is a bit uncertain here. A rise back above 1.2600 could push USD/CAD higher, while a return to 1.2500 could swing the pair lower to new lows around 1.2350.


===========================


Saxo Bank A/S accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information here in contained nor for any forecasts or recommendations. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that you will profit from the strategies herein or that your losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Stops may not necessarily limit losses to intended levels. Please read the full disclaimer at http://www.saxobank.com/?id=193&Lan=DA&Au=2&Grp=6

 

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