User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday February 12, 2008 - 23:29:31 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Warren Buffet Rescues Bond Insurers and Currencies, but Watch Out for Retail Sales

Tuesday, 12 February 2008 22:57:16 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• For Dollar Bulls, Consumer Spending Holds the Key
• British Pound: Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Warren Buffet Rescues Bond Insurers and Currencies, but Watch Out for Retail Sales
Warren Buffet’s willingness to take on risk has encouraged other traders to do so as well. According to a plan announced by the world’s most famous investor, Berkshire Hathaway will be stepping in to cover the liabilities of $800 billion in municipal bonds. This vote of confidence has helped to stabilize the stock and currency markets but the lack of a meaningful reaction in US treasuries indicates that Buffet’s investment may not be enough. There are also some strings attached. In order to assume the liability, current insurers would need to pay Berkshire 1.5 times the premium that they are currently receiving. One bond insurer has already rejected the offer and the other two have yet to respond. Focusing on bond insurers will not relieve the credit derivatives market, which has taken the biggest hit in the latest financial crisis. For currencies this means that the rebound in carry trades may be short lived. This weekend, G7 Finance Ministers warned that write-offs on US subprime mortgages could reach $400 billion. Only $120 billion have been announced so far, suggesting that there could be more reasons to sell stocks and high yielding currencies in the weeks and months to come. Carry trades have rebounded today, but don’t expect the recovery to last for long, unless we see some positive US data such as stronger than expected US retail sales. Japan will be reporting their domestic corporate goods price index, current account, trade balance and consumer confidence figures this evening, but we do not expect this data to be particularly market moving because for the Bank of Japan, good news or bad news will not cause them to alter interest rates at their monetary policy meeting on Friday morning.

For Dollar Bulls, Consumer Spending Holds the Key

The US dollar is holding onto its gains as the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the fiscal stimulus package announced by the Bush Administration leads traders to believe that the downturn in the US economy will be quick and shallow. Whether or not this is true will be decided by tomorrow’s retail sales report. Consumer spending encompasses 70 percent of the US economy. In the month of December, retail sales dropped for the first time since June. January retail sales figures are expected to drop for the second month in a row by 0.3 percent, which would be the first back to back decline since December 2001. With non-farm payrolls negative last month, chain store sales and consumer confidence declining, it would be surprising if retail sales rebounded. However in the past six years, we have never seen a back to back decline which means that this downturn may be unlike any other. The credit and derivatives driven market turmoil is new and housing has not collapsed like this in decades. As a result, it may be too optimistic to believe that the downturn in the US economy will not last. What we do agree with is the fact that other countries will find themselves behind the curve. When US growth finally stabilizes, many other countries like the Eurozone and Australia may be only at the beginning of dealing with their own slowdown. This scenario is still months away. In the more immediate future, growth is the Federal Reserve’s primary focus. Don’t forget that the futures curve is still pricing in 75bp of easing by June.

Tell us what you think on the Canadian dollar Forum.

British Pound: Vulnerable to Further Weakness

Although the market’s focus tomorrow will be on US retail sales, the British pound will also be in play with employment numbers and the Quarterly Inflation Report due for release. Producer prices grew by the fastest pace in 16 years but the growth of consumer prices fell short of expectations in the month of January. In fact, CPI dropped 0.7 percent, which was the sharpest plunge in a year – though the annual rate edged up to 2.2 percent. What does this mean for the outlook for UK interest rates? It is murkier than ever. For this reason, tomorrow’s reports will be exceptionally important. It will be interesting to see if the Bank of England is still worried about inflationary pressures in their Quarterly Inflation Report. Employment could also weaken, with the labor market components of manufacturing and construction sector PMI declining sharply in the month of January.

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Euro: Strongest Rally This Month
Pressures on the ECB to cut interest rates was eased as the ZEW Survey showed a surprising improvement in German Investor Confidence, and led to the biggest gain for the euro this month. Investor confidence beat expectations as it rebounded from a 15 year record low of minus 45 to minus 39.5. The resilience amongst European investors has stoked further speculation that the ECB will not look to cut rates in the near future as the German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck refuted growing speculation that President Jean-Claude Trichet will take a neutral stance on the ECB’s monetary policy. The German Wholesale Price Index and Eurozone’s Industrial Production figures are due for release tomorrow.

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Commodity Currencies Fail to Benefit from Yen Rally
Despite the strong rally in the Japanese Yen crosses, the Australian and Canadian dollars failed to join the party. Commodity weakened as Australian business confidence deteriorated in the month of January. It seems that the Reserve Bank’s commitment to continue raising interest rates and the slowdown in global growth is cutting into the optimism of Australian companies. We suspect that tomorrow’s Australian consumer confidence numbers will suffer the same fate. New Zealand producer prices also declined last quarter as the growth of both input and output prices decelerated.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

dfundamentals 2-12-01

dfundamentals 2-12-02

dfundamentals 2-12-03

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of
Contact Kathy Lien about this article at [email protected]

©2007 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105