Wednesday February 13, 2008 - 03:58:29 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||While 1.4554-64 support holds the risk is to 1.4642 at least|
||We did see gains but these have stalled at 1.4613. I still feel that there is still chance of seeing 1.4642 but the 1.4554-64 area (already tested this morning) needs to hold. A move back above 1.4613 should provide the lift to 1.4642. At this point we have to be careful. There is further resistance at 1.4672 and also 1.4695. I suspect a pullback from around 1.4642 but if this remains above 1.4560-70 again there is still chance of seeing 1.4671-77 and at most 1.4695-00.|
||Last weekâ€™s losses are more encouraging for a bearish structure. Thus from here only a move above 1.4695 and 1.4756 would see stronger gains back to 1.4831 at least and probably the 1.4953-66 highs. (11th February)|
||There is no sign of a weakened momentum picture in the recovery although it did reach overbought. I suspect this morningâ€™s bounce from 1.4561 should see a test of 1.4642 but I cautiously feel this will be a good selling level for a move back to 1.4560-80 at least. Take care as from there a bounce could be seen. Thus only below there â€“ or an earlier breach of 1.4554 would the tide turn for losses back to 1.4480 and later below the 1.4437 low. Support then seen at 1.4370. |
||The decline has developed but stalled at 1.4437. Cycles are now bearish so sell into any rally to the 1.4672-00 area. While there is risk of short term consolidation a break below 1.4370 would suggest 1.4045. (13th February)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The rally to 1.4613 was just short of wave equality in Wave c. However, it doesnâ€™t look complete and thus I suspect we should see a move to 1.4642 at least and possibly all the way to the 138.2% projection in Wave c at 1.4672 â€“ possibly the 161.8% around the 1.4695-00 area where Wave (b) will have retraced by 50%.
One note of caution. If we see an earlier dip it could imply a flat or more likely an expanded flat correction. From the 1.4613 peak we have seen so far a 38.2% expansion would take us to 1.4370. On the assumption this holds we could easily see a move back higher to the 1.4672-95 area.
Note that A 138.2% projection in Wave (iii) rests at 1.4045.
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