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Wednesday February 13, 2008 - 03:58:29 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD

 

Price:                              1.4570

Resistance: 1.4593 1.4613 1.4642 1.4677
Support: 1.4554 1.4525 1.4504 1.4480

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 1.4554-64 support holds the risk is to 1.4642 at least

Daily Bullish: We did see gains but these have stalled at 1.4613. I still feel that there is still chance of seeing 1.4642 but the 1.4554-64 area (already tested this morning) needs to hold. A move back above 1.4613 should provide the lift to 1.4642. At this point we have to be careful. There is further resistance at 1.4672 and also 1.4695. I suspect a pullback from around 1.4642 but if this remains above 1.4560-70 again there is still chance of seeing 1.4671-77 and at most 1.4695-00.
MT Bullish: Last week’s losses are more encouraging for a bearish structure. Thus from here only a move above 1.4695 and 1.4756 would see stronger gains back to 1.4831 at least and probably the 1.4953-66 highs. (11th February)
Daily Bearish: There is no sign of a weakened momentum picture in the recovery although it did reach overbought. I suspect this morning’s bounce from 1.4561 should see a test of 1.4642 but I cautiously feel this will be a good selling level for a move back to 1.4560-80 at least. Take care as from there a bounce could be seen. Thus only below there – or an earlier breach of 1.4554 would the tide turn for losses back to 1.4480 and later below the 1.4437 low. Support then seen at 1.4370.
MT Bearish: The decline has developed but stalled at 1.4437. Cycles are now bearish so sell into any rally to the 1.4672-00 area. While there is risk of short term consolidation a break below 1.4370 would suggest 1.4045. (13th February)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

13th February

The rally to 1.4613 was just short of wave equality in Wave c. However, it doesn’t look complete and thus I suspect we should see a move to 1.4642 at least and possibly all the way to the 138.2% projection in Wave c at 1.4672 – possibly the 161.8% around the 1.4695-00 area where Wave (b) will have retraced by 50%.

One note of caution. If we see an earlier dip it could imply a flat or more likely an expanded flat correction. From the 1.4613 peak we have seen so far a 38.2% expansion would take us to 1.4370. On the assumption this holds we could easily see a move back higher to the 1.4672-95 area.

Note that A 138.2% projection in Wave (iii) rests at 1.4045.

Ian Copsey

 

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