User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday October 15, 2004 - 20:03:17 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Points: Dollar Slides As Confidence Slips to 2003 Lows

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 10-15-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

· US Retail Sales Double Estimates, But Confidence Slips to 2003 Lows
· Japanese Appetite for Foreign Bonds Outstrips Foreign Demand
· Oil Hits a High of $55 A Barrel


There were explosive gains in the euro today as the market turned its focus to US economic data. A stronger US retail sales report was offset by a shockingly weak Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production report and University of Michigan consumer confidence report. Retail sales was the most anticipated data release this morning and although the surge in spending was twice what the market had anticipated, the bulk of the gains came from a retracement in auto sales, which fell –0.2% the prior month. Auto manufacturers gave heavy incentives to drive car sales during the month of September. Although the report was exceptionally positive and means well for third quarter GDP, of which two thirds are accounted for by consumer spending, the fact that consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since 2003 and manufacturing / factory activity is clearly slowing raises the concern of whether the pace of consumer spending can be sustained. The amount and extent of weak releases outweighed the positive retail sales report causing the dollar remains under pressure. We expect this to continue to be the case in the week ahead, with most traders looking for opportunities to buy on dips.


The impressive US retail sales report was quickly forgotten as the plethora of weaker US data stole the limelight. Manufacturing activity in the NY region retraced extensively after its sharp gains in September. The index dropped from a downwardly revised 27.26 to 17.43. The employment, workweek and new orders components all retraced while the unfilled orders index dipped into contractionary territory. Confirming weaker factory activity nationwide was lagging US industrial production, which increased by a dismal 0.1% in September. The US now joins Germany, France and Italy in experiencing weaker manufacturing sector growth. Capacity utilization also remained unchanged at 77.2%, but the August report was revised downward from 77.3%. More importantly though, confidence fell significantly in the month of October. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey decreased from 94.2 to 87.5 on the back of soaring energy prices and slower job growth. With oil prices hitting $50 a barrel, the problem still exists. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan tried to downplay the significance of the recent rise in oil prices by saying that its effect on the economy ‘is slower than in the 1970s,” he did warn though that a more “material” increase would have “serious” consequences.


The British pound ended the week higher. The market is still debating whether the Bank of England is at the end of their tightening cycle and continued shifting of expectations on this issue should be the primary driver of pound movements, aside from the dollar of course. Next week, the most important releases will be retail sales for the month of September and the third quarter GDP report. Both are expected to come in softer than the previous release. After having raised interest rates by 125bp since last November, the Bank of England has been successful in gradually slowing the economy. This success has been and will continue to be reflected in economic data releases starting with Monday’s RICS house price balance. However, uncertainty still remains as recent comments by BoE King suggest that it may be “premature” to write off any further hikes.


The Japanese yen remains under pressure, decoupling from yen fundamentals as the dollar takes the driver seat for the pair. All data released today is supportive of a fall in the Japanese yen. Leading indicators for the month of August were revised lower from 72.2% to 65.0%, but it still reflects expansionary conditions. The MoF also reported a huge net outflow for the week ending October 8th. Although foreigner demand for Japanese shares increased from 189.7 billion yen to 349.73 billion yen, it was enough to offset Japanese appetite for foreign bonds. The net portfolio outflow for the week was $15.2 billion. Over the past week, it also appears that the Japanese yen has become immune to the continual surge in oil prices. Oil has increased for four consecutive trading sessions, each time reaching new record highs. Yet the yen has remained bid against the dollar this entire week.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105