European Market Update: European Markets Turn Lower Ahead of Extended US Weekend
Â· *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
Â· FR Jan BOF Business Sentiment: 107 v 103 prior || Prior revised from 103 to
Â· FR Q4 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls: 0.4% v 0.3%e
Â· FR Q4 Preliminary Wages: 0.3% v 0. 5%e
Â· SP Jan CPI: M/M -0.6% v -0.6%e || Y/Y 4.3% v 4.4%e
Â· SP Jan Core CPI: M/M -1.0% v -0.9%e || Y/Y 3.1% v 3.3%e
Â· SP Jan Harmonized CPI: M/M -0.6% v -0.6%e || Y/Y 4.4% v 4.4%e
Â· EU Dec Trade Balance: -â‚¬4.2B v â‚¬500Me || Prior revised from â‚¬2.6B to â‚¬3. 0B
Â· EU Dec Trade Balance sa: -â‚¬2.1B v â‚¬2.5Be || Prior revised from â‚¬2.7B to â‚¬2.0B
Â· *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
Â· UK economic outlook: Alistair Darling could see his budget deficit more than
triple to an unprecedented Â£150B if the economy grinds to a halt || The report
said a major downturn in the coming months, with the economy shrinking by 1.0%,
"could see public borrowing rise as high as Â£100B or even Â£150B per annum,
blowing the fiscal framework to smithereens and perhaps even leading to some
rise in the Government''s relative cost of borrowing". [Telegraph]
Â· Bank of France: Forecasts Q1 GDP at 0.5% (first forecast) || Jan industry
output increased || New orders strengthened || Books are high and are above
normal || Finished goods stocks are up slightly
Â· GE Finance Minister: Forecasts German GDP growth of 1.7% in 2008 || Stimulus
package may lead to an ECB rate hike || Market crisis to last well into 2008 ||
Sees no signs fo recession in Germany
Â· GE Finance Minister: IKB bailout to prevent damage to financial system || â‚¬1.
0B in aid for IKB to come from earnings from dividends || Government may face
an extra â‚¬200M in IKB costs || Private banks have pledged â‚¬300M to the IKB
Â· *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Â· European fixed income futures are currently trading in negative territory in
the session with little economic data to provide any guidance. The lower opens
comes as follow through on comments made by the ECB''s Weber and the ECB''s
Trichet in the previous session, as well as a sell off in the long-end of the
treasury curve in the US. There has been a slight flattening in
the 2/10-year spread in Germany overnight, however the spread remains
within range of its recently made multi-month high. Heading into the extended
weekend in the US bunds could gain some support due to a
general lack of optimism surrounding the credit market, however it is likely
that big news will be necessary for this. Over in the UK gilt futures are trading higher in the
session and are outperforming their European counterparts following the Bank of
England''s quarterly inflation report on Wednesday as well as the 2042 gilt
auction yesterday. In new supply the Portuguese treasury has mandated Banco
Espirito Santo, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Calyon, and SG CIB to managed a new
benchmark 10-year OT due to be sold in the coming weeks, according to source
reports. Belgium announced plans to sell a new 3-year
benchmark OLO 53 overnight as well. That auction is scheduled to take place on
February 25. Over in France the AFT announced that it plans to offer
an between â‚¬5.0B and â‚¬5.5B in 2010, 2011, and 2013 BTANs on February 21.
Â· On the commodity front crude oil has been between the $95 and $96 handles for
the duration of the session thus far. Oil remains elevated by renewed concern
over Exxon''s row with Venezuela, as well as general concerns about the
economic outlook for the US economy. Crude is also gaining support
from the smaller than expected rise in inventories posted on Wednesday. Elsewhere
Gold is trading higher in the session, and has spent time on both sides of the
$910-handle throughout the session. Elsewhere silver and copper futures are
trading up as well as market participants seek refuge from the weakening
Â· The European indices are currently mixed. After spending the earlier part of
the session in positive territory the indices sold off ahead of on seemingly little news. Some analyst
have attributed the decline to a Citgroup note circulating that says that UBS
could take another CHF20B in writedowns in 2008. In equity news overnight, EU25
new car registrations for January declined by 0.2% compared to January of 2007.
The German Finance Minister said overnight that the IKB bailout will prevent
damage to financial system, noting that â‚¬1.0B in aid for IKB will come from
earnings from dividends. He added that the Government may face an extra â‚¬200M
in IKB costs noting that private banks have already pledged â‚¬300M to the IKB
rescue. Elsewhere, earnings from Deutsche Postbank were positively received.
Deutsche Postbank reported fourth-quarter writedowns of â‚¬51M, but noted that
risk provision is expected to rise in 2008. Deutsche Postbank''s CEO later
commented on the market noting that subprime will speed up consolidation in the
German banking sector.
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