Sunday October 17, 2004 - 22:46:56 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs US Dollar 18th October 2004 Price: 1.8035
1.8040 ... 1.8065 ... 1.8090 ... 1.8130
1.8010 ... 1.7970 ... 1.7935 ... 1.7905
While remaining below 1.8090 we look for a choppy move lower to 1.7935 at least
Price has reached the minimum target and we cannot get too bullish at this point. Indeed, only above 1.8090-00 would allow gains to follow through back to the 1.8132-60 highs and probably through to the 1.8240 area. We feel the first move should be lower but watch the 1.7935 level which we feel should allow a recovery.
With the minimum target at 1.8060 met we feel the larger risk today remains lower. Below 1.8010 would provoke follow-through to 1.7970 and after a small recovery further downside to 1.7935 is possible. However, we feel this should hold on first test. Only below 1.7935 would allow direct losses down to 1.7905 & 1.7865.
Elliott Wave Comments
11th October 2004
Once again we are forced to alter our medium term wave count with the move above 1.7930 suggesting that the decline from 1.8161 to 1.7744 was merely a correction to the rally from 1.7706 to 1.8161. We therefore label these Wave [a] and Wave [b] and suspect this could either imply the first two legs of a triangle or at the most a rally up to the 1.8255 area.
18th October 2004
The move to 1.8063 suggests the Wave (c) of the triangle is now complete (with a small risk of seeing 1.8090 first) and should now target the 1.7805-40 area for completion of Wave (d).
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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