User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday February 21, 2008 - 01:08:19 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Not Good Enough for the US Dollar

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• British Pound Tanks As BoE Minutes Reveal Unanimous Support for a Rate Cut
• Warnings from the ECB Weigh on Euro

Not Good Enough for the US Dollar
It has been a very active trading day with market moving news coming from all four corners of the forex market. The US dollar was firm ahead of the NY open but reversed all of its gains by the end of the US session. The only two currencies that failed to rally against the US dollar were the lowest yielding ones which are the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Although consumer prices and housing numbers were stronger than expected, the dollar’s knee jerk rally quickly evaporated as the market realized that inflation was not hot enough for the Federal Reserve to reconsider their intentions of lowering interest rates. This belief was validated by the minutes from the last FOMC meeting where the Fed cut interest rates by 50bp. At the meeting, the US central bank reduced their growth forecasts and increased their forecasts for inflation and unemployment. By the end of the year, they expect the unemployment rate to rise to as high as 5.3 percent. A pessimistic tone hung over the meeting with several members noting significant risks of a downturn in the economy. They felt that the combination of sharp equity market weakness and declining house prices would crimp consumer spending going forward. As a result, interest rates are expected to remain low for some time to “counter the factors that were restraining economic growth, including the slide in housing activity and prices, the tightening in credit availability, and the drop in equity prices." Fed fund futures continue to price in a 94 percent chance that interest rates will be cut by another 50bp in March. Although it is too soon to be worried about this, it is important to not forget the Fed’s warning today that should the economy stabilize and prospects for growth improve, a “rapid reversal” of a portion of the previous easing actions may be appropriate. Housing starts rebounded but building permits fell another 3 percent to the lowest level in 16 years. Leading indicators, jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey are due for release tomorrow. We expect the dollar to continue to remain weak because consumer prices was the only release this week that had the potential to trigger a reversal in the US dollar and unfortunately the impact was minimal.

British Pound Tanks As BoE Minutes Reveal Unanimous Support for a Rate Cut
So far this week, one of the best trades in currency market has been to sell British pounds. The nationalization of Northern Rock as well as the surprisingly dovish minutes from the Bank of England’s latest monetary policy meeting has pushed the GBP/USD within 50 pips of its 12 month low. Last week, the Bank of England released a relatively hawkish Quarterly Inflation Report, where they warned that inflation could breach the government’s 3 percent limit this year. This led many people to believe that the decision to cut interest rates earlier this month would meet resistance. However to the market’s surprise, not only did every single member of the MPC vote in favor of cutting interest rates, Blanchflower actually voted to cut rates by 50bp instead of 25. According to MPC member Barker, the slowdown in the economy is more worrisome than rising inflation. Another 50bp of easing has already been priced into the futures market and there is a decent chance that rates will fall to 4.25 percent before the BoE is done. Retail sales are due for release tomorrow and we expect the strength of the labor market to drive up spending.

Visit the British Pound Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Warnings from the ECB Weigh on Euro

With every passing day, the European Central Bank is slowly shifting its tone. Earlier this month, ECB President Trichet acknowledged that there are downside risks to growth which basically means that the Eurozone will no longer be immune to the US slowdown. ECB member Garganas went one step further today by saying that the credit markets could have a bigger impact on Eurozone growth than initially anticipated which completely offset the fastest pace of growth in German producer prices in 13 months. Germany is facing the same pressure of higher food and energy prices as the rest of the world which is the main reason why the ECB won’t cut interest rates until they have no other options. We expect a rate cut to come in the second half the year, which should lead to a reversal in the EUR/USD, but before that we should see a push above 1.48 and a possible test of the all time high. Eurozone consumer prices, the Swiss trade balance and Swiss Producer prices are due for release tomorrow – expect another active trading session.

Visit the Euro Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

Australian Dollar Hits 3 Month High, Canadian Dollar Rebounds
While the British pound has been one of the best currencies to sell this week, the Australian dollar has been one of the best currencies to buy. The currency hit a 3 month high against the US dollar today as the market continues to absorb the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprisingly hawkish monetary policy. The Canadian dollar on the other hand rebounded thanks to stronger economic data and higher oil prices. Both leading indicators and Canada’s international securities transactions beat expectations while oil futures hit an intraday high above $101 a barrel. We continue to be bullish Australian dollars and expect it to test its year to date highs against the US dollar.

Tell us what you think about the loonie on the Canadian dollar Forum.

Carry Trades Make a U Turn

Last night, news that private equity firm KKR warned that they will be delaying repayments for a second time, triggered a wave of carry trade selling. That move was reversed in the NY trading session when the Dow went from being down over 100 points to up 90. Although this could lead to some follow through strength in the Yen crosses, we remain bearish because this type of volatility in the financial markets is more negative than positive for carry trades. The Japanese remain concerned about growth which suggests continued weakness in data.

Visit the Japanese Yen Currency Room for resources dedicated specifically to the Euro.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105