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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD

 

Price:                       0.9186

Resistance: 0.9207 0.9236 0.9265 0.9296
Support: 0.9165 0.9132 0.9099 0.9050

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: We should now see a retest of the 0.9236 area, a pullback and then gains to 0.9296-0.9321

Daily Bullish: Losses developed and bounced nicely from the 0.9099-0.9119 area that have made their way back to 0.9198. While 0.9165-70 (max 0.9159) supports we should see a further move higher to the area of the 0.9236 high. From here we should expect a pullback. However, while the same support area holds the risk is still higher back above 0.9236 and toward s0.9265 minimum and I now suspect the 0.9295-0.9321 area which should cap.  However, this should take more than today to complete.
MT Bullish: We have seen the minimum target at 0.9235 met but I suspect we should see further with the 0.9321 area now implied. I still see this as a correction – only above 0.9399 is bullish. (21st February)
Daily Bearish: With the strong bounce from the 0.9099-0.9119 support area the downside seems low risk. However, the rally is not expected to be direct and I look for a test of the 0.9235 area once again and this should provide a pullback to the 0.9160-75 area again. Only breach of the 0.9160 level would imply an earlier sideways consolidation and a move back to 0.9132 but this should hold else look for a stronger test of 0.9099. Breach would be bearish.
MT Bearish: I still see longer term cycle as lower so I still think this is corrective. However, we could see 0.9254-65 and probably 0.9321 in this move. Thus only back below 0.9099 suggests earlier losses. (21st February)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

20th February

The 0.9235 level was a 61.8% projection of the move to 0.9099 from the 0.8872 corrective low. However, no bearish divergences seen and thus I still expect a 50%-58.6% pullback to 0.9099-19 to cause further gains to the 161.8% projection in Wave –c- at 0.9265.

21st February

The 50%-58.6% support at 0.9099-0.9119 has held and this should prompt a final ABC pattern higher. The first should reach the 0.9236 area again and force Wave b to develop. The final move should reach the 0.9265 area at least but the 176.4% projection in Wave –c- is at 0.9296 which we cannot rule out 0.9321 also. This should be a major peak.

Ian Copsey

 

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