Monday October 18, 2004 - 19:45:15 GMT
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DOLLAR SLUMPS AFTER TIC DATA
The Dollar started the week off in the N.Y session lower across the board versus its major counterparts. Dollar/Jpy sold off early after the TIC data was reported a decline of net purchases of all U.S. securities by foreigners slowed to 58.96 bln in August from 63.1. Euro spiked higher due to this in part and also pressed through Friday’s highs of 1.2505/10 to trade to a fresh high of 1.2530/35 while Gbp/Usd followed suite trading to session high of 1.8070/75 before retreating because of the UK RICS housing prices. This survey showed a sharp decline to -30 in September from -12 in August and was the biggest drop in nine years. This caused GBP/USD to fall from the mentioned highs to session lows of 1.7947/52 just around noon. Dollar/Jpy managed to claw back some of its losses that were given up earlier and propped itself up to 109.40 just around NY lunch. AUD/USD followed Euro lower after it was unable to get above .7320 today and fell to .7250/55 at mid day. There is CPI and Housing starts set for release tomorrow at 8:30 eastern time.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING Dollar/Jpy remains above 108.80. There is trend line support seen in the near term at 109.10/20 and 108.80/90. There is trend line resistance at 109.50/60 and 10980/90. The 200hr moving average comes in at 109.90 as well. The Relative Strength is waning at a reading of 51.58 on a 60 minute chart.
GAIN AN EDGE We look to play the range, with a sale at 109.50/60 and a stop above the 200 hr moving average (109.90 ) and a take profit of 108.95 and then revolve it.
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