Monday February 25, 2008 - 03:58:33 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||While 1.0876-97 caps there is still risk of losses to 1.0805-13 before the anticipated stronger rally |
||Losses did develop down into the 1.0813-54 area and we therefore need to be aware that a direct resumption of the upside is possible. I tend to feel that we need just one more low which should reach the 1.0805-13 area and if seen this should provide a good buying opportunity. Only an earlier break above 1.0897 and the 1.0916 corrective high would imply a direct recovery that should then proceed towards 1.0955-70 and probably make its way all the way to the 1.1042 area.|
||The correction from 1.1106 has been a lot more erratic than expected and may even get back to 1.0811-54. However, I remain overall bullish and will look for a return to 1.1106-20 and later higher. (22nd February)|
||The downside did prove the weaker side on Friday and fell between the two potential support areas at 1.0813 and 1.0854. However, until the 1.0897-1.0916 area is broken we should be aware of the risk of a final dip to the 1.0805-13 area which I suspect will hold. Thus any stronger bearish stance will require a breach of the 1.0800 level and if seen then look for losses to 1.0785 and probably 1.0760-65 which could stall the decline before a test of the 1.0728 low. |
||The recovery from 1.0728 appears positive and while Fridayâ€™s pullback was deep it still holds within a bullish structure. Thus only below 1.0854 & 1.0817 triggers stronger losses back towards 1.0728 again. (19th February)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
This Wave (b) has been pretty choppy and the actual internal count is very clouded. However, I suspect that we should be seeing a 5-wave decline from yesterdayâ€™s 1.1032 high.
We still need to be careful as there is a bullish divergence developing in the 4-hour chart though the hourly still looks bearish.
If yesterdayâ€™s 1.0865 low was a Wave iii then the maximum Iâ€™d expect in Wave iv would be at 1.0938. Thus the next decline should be Wave v and we can then watch the 66.7% retracement in Wave (b) at 1.0854 and then the 76.4% at 1.0811-17.
This should spark a recovery in Wave (c).
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