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Tuesday February 26, 2008 - 03:54:11 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY

 

Price:                             107.94

Resistance: 108.21 108.48 108.60 108.98
Support: 107.84 107.55 107.10 106.95

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 107.55-84 supports there should be room for gains to 108.90 else see a drop to 106.95

Daily Bullish: The break back above the 107.56 provided a solid lift which has reached 108.21 thus far. While 107.55-84 supports we should see this move further. Take care at 108.48 as this could cause a slightly deeper pullback. Breach extends to 108.90-98 but this is expected to cap if seen. Next resistance is then found at 109.36 and stronger at 109.80-84.
MT Bullish: Gains have continued to be very slow but I retain a bullish stance for 109.80 minimum and probably just above 110.00 but whether it can get to 110.94 is uncertain with the next leg lower expected to begin. (26th February)
Daily Bearish: Yesterday saw gains as preferred and I suspect these should continue. The only risk is if we see a breach of the 107.55 level which would tend to undermine the direct rally and cause slippage to 107.10-20 at least and potentially 106.75-95. This should hold. Only below reverses once again for 105.69 and eventually 104.95.
MT Bearish: So far we have seen the pullbacks remains above 106.33 but I have seen one other scenario that would still allow 105.34-69. Thus only below this area would trigger direct losses through 104.95 to 103.44. (25th February)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

25th February

Wave relationships haven’t been that great and it means we still need to watch this erratic currency pair closely.

If Friday’s 106.71 was the end of Wave b then we need a break back above the minor Wave iv of Wave c of Wave b at 107.56. If seen it should then trigger gains in Wave c higher towards the wave equality target at 108.90-98 which is where Wave B will have retraced by 41.4%

The other structure is a possible expanded flat in Wave x and this would imply a move back to the 105.69 Wave efa low – maybe just below before seeing gains.

Until then keep in mind the 50% retracement in Wave B at 109.80 and the 61.8% retracement at 110.94.

Ian Copsey

 

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