Wednesday February 27, 2008 - 12:45:30 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Feb-2008....1234 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0688/92...Falling Sharply
R: 1.0730 / 1.0780
S: 1.0675-70 / 1.0648
USD-CHF has fallen sharply during the day as well to fresh record lows and is currently near its Support of 1.0675-70 on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 1.0887 (Nov-07) and 1.0733 (01-Feb-08). A break below that could lead to further losses in the pair possibly towards 1.0648, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0730 and 1.0780. Two-way moves are likely over the remainder of the week and caution would be advocated.
GBP-USD @ 1.9844/48...Near Important Support of 1.9840-35
R: 1.9900 / 1.9950
S: 1.9840-35 / 1.9780 / 1.9720
GBP-USD has come off sharply off its highs of 1.9975 seen earlier in the day on back of persistent rumors of a bank in trouble in the UK. This has caused a rally in EUR-GBP.
Intraday the Support for GBP-USD is at 1.9840, a break below which could see further acceleration of losses in GBP possibly towards 1.9780. However, the statistically projected Max Low for the day would provide Support at 1.9825. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9950. We were stopped out at 1.9870 on Long which was entered at 1.9896 in the morning.
AUD-USD @ 0.9393/97...Last Leg of Upmove
R: 0.9380 / 0.9403 / 0.9503
S: 0.9342 / 0.9312
The Aussie is close to testing the Nov-07 High near 0.9403. How much further up can it go? A trendline joining the Feb-04 and Nov-07 peaks on the Weekly Close chart provides Resistance near current levels itself. However, when we look at the Weekly Candles, a similar trendline joining the Feb-04 and Nov-07 Highs provides Resistance at a higher level near 0.9500. This suggests that both in Feb-04 and Nov-07, the Aussie had spiked to high levels on an intra-week basis, but had fallen back after that. A similar movement could be expected this time. As such, selling in the 0.9450-9500 region might be considered.
But, it could take another day or two to reach 0.9450-9500. In the more here and now, the Aussie is in an uptrend with Support at 0.0342. If the immediate Resistance at 0.9380 breaks, a rise towards 0.9450-9500 could be seen.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.9499, SL 0.9609, TP 0.9299
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