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Tuesday October 19, 2004 - 12:33:59 GMT

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Daily Forex Market Commentary Tuesday, October 19, 2004 by GFT

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading (source:

The dollar is at a minor crossroads after trading divergently on Monday. It sank briefly against the euro and the Swiss franc, it advanced versus the pound amid renewed fears that the housing bubble will deflate, and it experienced choppy trading against the yen. The candlestick charts now suggest a dollar recovery on the day, but the general negative sentiment persists. All in all, expect choppy trading with breakout attempts on both sides.

Euro/dollar rallied further on Monday to reach a new seven-month high at 1.2532 and this strength was expected. However, its inability to hold on to its gains triggered a bearish reversal signal on the candlestick chart.

If this signal is correct, then look for immediate support between 1.2440 and 1.2425. A slide below this area would signal a more aggressive decline to the next area between 1.2340 and 1.2330.

Immediate resistance is at 1.2500. Above the 1.2532 peak, resistance comes in the nearby 1.2560 area. A break higher would quickly accelerate this rally and the euro/dollar would challenge the further resistance at 1.2634. However, the pair should not be that bullish on Tuesday, if the daily candlestick chart is correct. In fact, it suggests a pullback.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

One day after collapsing to a 1 ˝-month low of 108.79, dollar/yen made a half-baked recovery before beating into retreat and closing little changed. The pair should struggle again on Tuesday to exit from Friday’s range.

To confirm any further weakness, dollar/yen must still close below the 50-pip pivot at 109.15, which targets either 108.65 or 109.65. Further supports remain at 108.08 and at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Above 109.65, which held on Monday, dollar/yen has resistance at 110.00 and at 110.20. Further resistance comes in the area between 110.35 and 110.55.

Oscillators are heading lower.

LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish

Stung by concern that the housing sector bubble is starting to lose more steam, sterling/dollar fell on Monday from a two-week high and closed lower. The daily candlestick chart suggests further losses, but wait to see whether the pound actually has the stamina to lead the European currencies lower.

Any further decline will face good support at 1.7930. If this level buckles, then look for an acceleration of the decline to the area between 1.7905 and 1.7890. Distant support looms at 1.7840, but it should hold off the radar screen.

If turns out that the decline on Monday was a one-day wonder, then sterling/dollar will challenge the resistance at 1.8030. A break higher would confirm that the decline was temporary and the pair would then test 1.8095. Tough resistance remains at 1.8120 ahead of the pivotal peak at 1.8160.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss spiked further down on Monday and reached a new three-month low of 1.2267. It then trimmed most of its losses and the candlestick chart formed a bullish reversal formation; be careful buying in a generally very market.

Any recovery will face resistance at 1.2376 and an unlikely break above this level would signal a recovery to 1.2428. Distant resistance is seen between 1.2470 and1.2500.

Immediate support is at 1.2300. A break below the pivotal low of 1.2267 would further accelerate the slide and if the pair can extend its tepid pace on the downside, then it will challenge the support area between 1.2230 and 1.2245. A move to 1.2204 should not happen today.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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