Friday February 29, 2008 - 05:20:04 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCAD
||There does seem risk of an upward correction â€“ only below 0.9692 extends to 0.9628|
||No break of 0.9831 and this allowed losses to just above the 0.9692 support. With a bullish divergence formed there is a risk of a correction higher. We do still need to allow for a fuller test of 0.9692 but while this holds the correction becomes more likely. An earlier break above 0.9806 would produce gains to 0.9830 minimum and if this gives way then expect a deeper pullback to 0.9853 and probably 0.9883. However, this should hold. Only above 0.9913 is more bullish.|
||With a further sharp decline we shall need a move back above 0.9931 and 1.000 to generate any meaningful gains. Watch resistance at 1.0038 also. (27th February)|
||Losses seen as expected though these didnâ€™t quite reach the preferred 0.9292 target. With a bullish divergence having developed any bearish stance will need to be confirmed and this would only come on a break of the 0.9692 support. If seen then the downside will be open to the 0.9628 target.|
||We have seen losses develop to the old 0.9755 low and now while 0.9907-32 caps we should see losses resume towards 0.9692 at a minimum and I suspect further to 0.9628 at least â€“ possibly 0.9560. (28th February)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Losses have been seen to 0.9782 and I suspect this may have been Wave iii of Wave (c). A 50% correction in Wave iv would imply peak at 1.9910 but given the very brief Wave ii we should allow for a 58.6% retracement at 0.9931.
From there a move to the wave equality target in Wave (c) at 0.9692 is expected.
It is unclear whether yesterdayâ€™s dip to 0.9709 satisfied the wave equality target in Wave (c) which rests at 0.9692. I suspect it may only have been Wave iii of Wave (c) and thus as long as the 50% correction in Wave iv holds at 0.9883 (max 58.6% at 0.9913) we should see further losses in Wave (v). Any earlier dip below 0.9692 would see losses to the 261.8% projection in Wave iii at 0.9628.
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