Monday March 3, 2008 - 12:45:32 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 3-Mar-2008....1240 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0388/93...Midst of a Meltdown
S: 1.0350 / 1.0292
USD-USD had a very sharp fall last week, which carried over into today to hit a low of 1.0307. A bounce has been seen from there. However the pair still remains in a firm downtrend and further fall possibly towards 1.0209 (projected Max Low for the week) is possible. A test of 1.000 cannot be ruled out either, although one should expect defense of that level, as lots of Option triggers could be present. The pair needs to move above 1.0550 to question the potential for further downside in the next few days.
We entered a Short at 1.0340, which was stopped out at 1.0390. For today the Support is at 1.0350 and then at 1.0292, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.0426, the statistically projected Max High for the day.
GBP-USD @ 1.9847/52...Buy Dip or Sell Rally
R: 1.9900 / 1.9950-52
S: 1.9800 / 1.9746
Although GBP gained against USD last week, it lost heavily on almost all its crosses including Yen, Euro and CHF. Thus GBP stayed within 1.9700 and 1.9970 last week, and this range is likely to stay intact in the first part of this week, ahead of the BOE Meeting on Thursday. No change in interest rate is expected. Above 1.9970-2.0000, the BIG Resistance is at 2.0125, the 200-MA on the Daily Candles. On the downside the Support below 1.9700 would be at 1.9550.
For today the Support is at 1.9800 and then at 1.9746, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9900 and 1.9952, the statistically projected Max High for the day. Trading the range would be a good idea.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 1.9750, SL 1.9690, TP 1.9900
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.9960, SL 2.0020, TP 1.9700.
See UK Interest Rate and GBP Libor Chart at
AUD-USD @ 0.9331/35...Resistance at 0.9375
R: 0.9375 / 0.9420
S: 0.9300 / 0.9270 / 0.9242
AUD-USD had a very sharp fall on Friday and gave up a major part of the gain, which it had seen earlier last week. Friday‚Äôs fall in the pair has continued today as well, in what is a very important week, as the RBA Meets tomorrow and Australian Trade Balance would come out on Thursday. The initial Support this week is at 0.9240, on the trendline on the Daily Charts joining the lows of 0.8511 (22-Jan) and 0.8930 (13-Feb). Below that the Support is at 0.9160. On the upside the Resistance would come in at 0.9400. The pair is likely to be very volatile this week.
For today the Support is at 0.9300 and 0.9274, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.9375, the statistically projected Max High for the day. Above that the Resistance is at 0.9420.
See AUD Interest rate and AUD Libor chart at
See AUD Trade Balance chart at
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