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FX Blog- TTN European Market UpdateEuropean Market Update: European Manufacturing PMIs Slightly Better than Expected in Feb
ยท *** ECONOMIC DATA ***
ยท SW Feb Swedbank PMI: 55.7 v 54.0e
ยท SP Feb Manufacturing PMI: 46.7 v 49.8 prior
ยท SZ Feb SVME PMI: 60.5 v 60. 4e
ยท IT Feb Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 v 50.2e
ยท FR Feb Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 v 53.4e
ยท GE Feb Manufacturing PMI: 54.3 v 54.0e
ยท EU Feb Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 52.3e
ยท UK Feb Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 51.0
ยท IT Jan PPI: M/M 0.4% v 0.5%e || Prior revised from -0.1% to 0.1% |||| Y/Y 5.2% v 5.1%e || Prior revised from 4.6% to 4.7%
ยท EU Feb CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.2% v 3. 2%e
ยท *** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***
ยท ECB Liebscher: Oil price is critical to ECB monetary policy || Firmer Euro has dampened oil price rise || Recent commodity moves are staggering
ยท IMF Struss Kahn: Current economic slowdown may lead to lower oil prices || Euro is overvalued, CNY and JPY are undervalued || The USD is not as undervalued as CNY or JPY || A return to Forex balance does not depend on one currency
ยท Times reports that following the collapse of the UK hedge fund Peloton, concerns about other UK hedge funds are rising || Times notes that some city sources fear that Peloton''s fire-sale will lead to banks requiring more margin from their hedge fund clients. || Times notes that Peloton started to liquidate it''s $9B US credit portfolio on Friday.
ยท *** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
ยท Fixed income futures are mixed in Europe, but are currently outperforming the equity markets, which are sharply lower on US recession fears. This has sparked a general flight to safety. There has been a steepening in the German yield curve overnight as the long end outperformed.
ยท On the commodity front crude oil is trading higher lower in the session but remains above the $101-handle. The Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said overnight that crude prices are not likely to fall below $60/barrel due to rising costs to develop tar sands and alternative fuels. He added that Saudi Arabia would never change its domestic or foreign policies under pressure from the US. Elsewhere spot gold is trading higher in the session and is moving in on the $1000/oz level.
ยท Risk aversion remained the predominant theme in pre European trading as JPY and CHF firmed via crosses. Firmer commodity prices also remain a dominate theme as spot Gold probed close to the 1,000-level for fresh all-time high, while spot Silver tested above $20 per oz for new 27 year high. The USD/JPY tested below the 103-handle to hit 3-year lows, while USD/CHF tested 1.0405 for fresh all-time lows in this pair. Option related-barriers holding EUR/USD below the 1.5250 area. Currencies drifted into a consolidation phase aided by the earnings results of HSBC.
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Tue 17 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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