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Monday March 3, 2008 - 17:32:21 GMT
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FX Blog- Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision Preview for March 4, 2008
GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision Anouncement: March 4 at 03:30 GMT.
- RBA Cash Rate Target: 7.00%
- Strong risk of another +25bp rate hike.
- Inflation and liquidity concerns are keeping the market bias for future rate hikes in Australia. Recent comments by the Reserve Bank seemed to signal a March tightening. Note in the chart below that the two RBA core measure are pressing the top end of the bank's allowable limit. A global economic slowdown and the historic highs of the AUD are likely to start to restrain the risk of future rate hikes.
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.
The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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