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Monday March 3, 2008 - 17:50:57 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Bank of Canada Policy Meeting Preview
GVI Bank of Canada Policy Meeting Preview
- Decision: March 4 at 14:00 GMT.
- BOC Overnight Target Rate: 4.00%
- Expected Decision: Odds favor another -25bp rate cut. The latest policy statement and BOC comments suggest that further cuts are in the pipeline.
- There are concerns that the Canadian economy could be negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown and the high level of the Canadian currency. Note below that both the Ivey Manufacturng PMI might have started to weaken. BOC core inflation is below bank estimates. The high level of the Canadian currency. Short-term credit markets anticipate additional rate cuts through 3Q08.
BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI.
The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current BOC overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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