Tuesday March 4, 2008 - 05:06:08 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||Slightly mixed but beginning to feel we could see a move down to 1.0216-48|
||The 1.0320 level broke but we then saw a recovery from the 1.0307 low. This appears to break the structure I was considering yesterday and there has been no obvious reversal signal from momentum. Therefore wait for a test of 1.0216-48 (probably closer to the low end) and if this is accompanied by a bullish divergence then it should be a good buying level. Only an earlier break above 1.0417-35 would attack the 1.0456 corrective high and trigger follow-through to 1.0486 (take care) and 1.0564-1.0618.|
||As price keeps declining we may get an opportunity to buy for a correction around 1.0216. At the most the 1.0618 (max 1.0671) area should cap & breach will be needed to generate stronger gains. (4th March)|
||With a marginal new low at 1.0307 I feel that on balance the downside may well still be at risk. We really need the 1.0417-35 area to cap and for a break below 1.0375 to generate a test of 1.0332-40 which could cause a small reaction. A subsequent decline below yesterdayâ€™s 1.0307 low would spark additional losses to 1.0280 and probably the 1.0216-48 area where I expect a base to develop. Only below 1.0198 sees 1.0110-23. |
||The 0.9993-1.0110 targets remain although we should see a pullback before seeing the expected test. This correction should remain below 1.0575-1.0676. Below 1.0200 sees a direct test of the LT targets. (3rd March)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Keep in mind the potential targets for Wave (v) (starting from 1.1594) are at 1.0110 (61.8%), 0.9993 (66.7%) and 0.9760 (76.4%.)
The 223.6% projection in Wave â€“iii- at 1.0320 was only marginally broken but given the momentum picture still looks bearish it is beginning to look like weâ€™ll see another dip to the 261.8% projection in Wave â€“iii- at 1.0216.
This should then generate a correction in Wave â€“iv- that should move as high as 1.0572-1.0633.
Only an earlier pullback (with 1.0307 as the end of Wave â€“iii-) would imply resistance at 1.0618-1.0671.
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