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Tuesday March 4, 2008 - 12:28:38 GMT
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FX Blog- TTN European Market Update

European Market Update: Risk Aversion Sets in on SIV Default Rumors in Canada


· SZ Feb CPI: M/M 0.1% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 2.4% v 2. 4%e

· SZ Q4 GDP: Q/Q 1.0% v 0.5%e || Prior revised from 0.8% to 0.9% |||| Y/Y 3.6% v 2.8%e || Prior revised from 2.9% to 3.0%

· SP Feb Net Change in Unemployment: 53.4K v 132.4K prior

· SP Feb Consumer Confidence: 76.8 v 70.9 prior

· UK Feb Construction PMI: 52.4 v 53. 0e

· EU Jan PPI: M/M 0.8% v 0.8%e || Y/Y 4.9% v 4.9%e

· EU Q4 Preliminary GDP: 0.4% v 0.4%e || Y/Y 2.2% v 2.3%e

· EU Q4 Preliminary Gross Fixed Capital: 0.8% v 0.7%e

· EU Q4 Preliminary Government Expenditures: -0.1% v 0.1%e || Prior revised from 0.6% to 0. 7%

· EU Q4 Preliminary Household Consumption: -0.1% v 0. 0%e


· Former Fed Chairman Greenspan said that the US growth rate of economy activity is effectively zero || Greenspan added that he was not prepared to say the US is entering a recession and added that the probability that the country will experience some negative growth is better than 50/50. [Financial Times]

· ECB''s Quaden: Euro strength has both advantages and disadvantages || Excessive FX volatility must be avoided || US authorities must reaffirm the strong dollar policy || Inflation is a big concern

· Juncker says Euro forex rates will not impact real economy || Unwise to have targets for Euro forex rate

· SZ KOF: Swiss growth can top 2.0% in 2008 || Swiss economy is holding up well

· BE Finance Minister: Welcomes the US'' concern on currencies || Could be the first step to collaboration on currencies || It is normal to be concerned about the Euro || Says that the ECB president is concerned about FX rates

· SW Riksbank''s Nyberg: Market uncertainty will persist for a long time || Wanted to wait in repo rate hike at last meeting citing financial market turmoil || Market turmoil has worsened in recent months || Cost pressures are high || Inflation expectations have risen || Riksbank''s monetary policy situation is unusually difficult

· ECB''Orphanides: Expects Euro-Zone economic growth to slow in 2008 vs. 2007 || Slower growth helps to restrict inflation || Oil prices remain a concern


· European fixed income futures are trading lower in the session following a slight improvement in stock sentiment and a slight recovery in the dollar seen late yesterday. The spread between the Italian 10-year and the 10-year bund reached 49bps overnight, the widest since the start of the EMU, while the spread between the Greek 10-year, and the 10-year bund reached 50bps on the back of a strike at the Bank of Greece. The Swiss fed bond future opened lower in the session, but was relatively unaffected by the uninteresting CPI data for February as well as the stronger than expected fourth-quarter growth figures. The shape of the European yield curves is relatively unchanged from yesterday. In new supply overnight the Austrian AFFA sold €1.1B in 4. 30% September 2017 RAGBs with an average yield of 3.98% and abid-to-cover of 1.76x. Over in the UK the DMO sold £2.5B in 4.50% 2013 gilts with an average yield of 4.269% and a bid-to-cover of 2.48x. The cover compares to the 2.48x seen at the last auction of the old issue. Looking ahead, with no data scheduled in the US today the Bank of Canada rate decision will be in focus in both Canada and the US. The general consensus over what the Bank of Canada will do today is widely split between a 25bps rate cut and a 50bps rate cut with exactly 50% of those surveyed anticipating a 25bps cut and the other 50% anticipating a 50bps cut. The BOC decision is due at 9:00 et. Another point of focus in Canada will be the Bank of Montreal. There were rumors overnight indicating that two of the bank''s SIV funds are in technical default.


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